Number games: 2 degrees Celsius, 2050 and the G8. But does it all add up?
Posted on 09. Jul, 2009 by Cara Bevington in Adopt a Negotiator, Australia
G8 leaders have come out with a land mark climate change agreement on the back of meetings in L’Aquila in Italy (read the full communiqué here).
Is this good news? In a word, yes.
Is it jump for joy and do an embarrassing dance kinda news? In another word, no.
Why? Well, the answer lies in the numbers.
We need the climate numbers to add up in order to safe guard our future
First things first, 2 degrees Celcius
To save you from reading through the forty page communiqué released by the G8 this morning, I can tell you now that point 65 says, and I quote: “We recognise the broad scientific view that the increase in global average temperature above preindustrial levels ought not to exceed 2°C. Because this global challenge can only be met by a global response, we reiterate our willingness to share with all countries the goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050… As part of this, we also support a goal of developed countries reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in aggregate by 80% or more by 2050 compared to 1990 or more recent years.
What does all of this mean?
The G8 commitment to keeping global warming below 2 degrees is positive, and it’s a good step in the right direction that they have set longer term targets of 80% by 2050 for developed countries
BUT (yes it’s a big but)
Let’s look at the second key number in this equation, 2050
Forward planning is good – my accountant told me so – but 2050 is too far off to matter, poor people are being hit by the impacts of climate change today. Without short term targets for developed countries there’s no way we can prevent catastrophic climate change. The best chance we have to avoid the most disastrous impacts of climate change is if we limit warming to as far below 2 degrees Celsius as possible, to achieve this, we need strong action now. Wealthy, polluting countries urgently need to set themselves short term targets of at least 40% by 2020. Without short term targets for developed countries there’s no way we can prevent catastrophic climate change
AND (yes, more capitals)
Let’s go back to point 65 again, “we reiterate our willingness to share with all countries the goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050”
Asking developing countries to cut their emissions by 50% by 2050 will require wealthy countries, like Australia, to put money on the table to help poor countries to adapt to the killer effects of climate change and to stop things getting any worse. We need at least $187 billion each year, and Australia’s contribution should be $4.3bn per year. We will all benefit from developing countries reducing their emissions, but they can’t afford to do it on their own.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has led the way by recognising the scale of what is needed, and there has been reports that our Prime Minister Rudd supports Brown’s proposal, we need to see all wealthy developed countries follow Brown’s lead. Unless we get significant funding on the table there will be no deal in Copenhagen in December.
Lastly, the number 8: A quick search on my friend Wikipedia revealed to me that “8 is the number of building, and in some theories, also the number of destruction” make of that what you will… but what is important to realise when talking about the G8 is that they are exactly what their name says, a group of 8 countries. Sure, they are quite wealthy countries, some with very large populations, but they cannot make decisions on behalf of all of the countries of the world. The momentum for climate action from the G8 needs to carry over into the United Nations climate change negotiation process, where more than two hundred of the world’s countries are represented.
As we move toward the MEF (Major Economies Meeting) happening tomorrow in Italy I would love to hear your thoughts on the numbers.
* Is a limit of 2 degrees Celsius enough?
* Is 2050 too far off to be basing targets on?
* And more importantly, as a non G8 member, what should Australia’s role be in all of this?
So please, add your thoughts and comments to this blog.
Oltre e fuori (that’s Italian for over and out), Cara
Photo source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/missyho/140387211/
This is a constructive step, but what we need is for this commitment to translate to an emissions budget that gives a low probability of exceeding 2 degrees. The proposed references to probabilities of exceeding 2 degrees in the draft UNFCCC long-term cooperative action negotiating text refer to 50 per cent probabilities. A 50 per cent probability of exceeding 2 degrees is unacceptably high.
The recent Nature paper by Meinshausen et al on global carbon budgets and probabilities of exceeding 2 degrees is worth checking out.
It is a step in the right direction but it primarily window dressing at this stage. I don’t believe the science is good enough yet to be able to say that 2 degrees is appropriate. There is plenty of evidence to date that suggests that most estimates/predictions have been way too conservative. We can’t afford to keep making that mistake.
I wish that our politicians and government were brave enough to have their “actions speak so loudly that we would not have to hear their words”.
Merri and Peter, thanks so much for your comments and insights! I really appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts and committment to climate change
Please do send us through any feedback you have on this project – this project exist ultimately for you, and concerned citizens of the world.
I couldn’t agree with you both more – a 50% chance of ruining our planet is definately not something we should be gambling with!
I am quite sure that (the vast majority) of our Politicians know the science (with the obvious exception of Steve Fielding and friends in Australia – if you’re a facebook person, check out the group ‘Steve Fielding Doesn’t Exist’ it’s hilarious!)what our Politicians are lacking is the political will. We need to continue to lobby our governments for strong short term emission reduction targets – and continue to raise our voices collectively to take our neighbours, friends, colleagues on this journey with us.
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