He said he wouldnt come to talk, but to act. Well, we found him eating Pizza instead.

I know that you guys out there are probably waiting for me to blog and give you some more insight on what is happening over here. Well, I honestly do not quite know where to begin. This day is the last official day of negotiations here in Copenhagen, the whole civil society is watching, but locked out of the Bella Center. There have been a couple of nice sounding speeches by heads of states – most of them neither surprising, nor bringing new numbers or targets to the table.

Above all of them: Obama and Merkel. I know about both that they actually do care about their “Climate Reputation” and came here to be the game changers in the last hours of these negotiations. Merkels speech was beautifully framed with good rhetorics, but the numbers she announced were nowhere near of what we expect and need them to be: She still talked about a mere 25% emission reduction targets as a globally needed target for industrialised countries, she did not even mention the issue of additionality (new and additional money) and it became clear once more that those conditional 30% that were put out there somehow by the EU are still conditional and this card has yet to be played. Today, Obama again talked about the US reduction goals of 17% by 2020 – and simply ignored the fact that this is based on the emission in the year 2005, not 1990. It breaks down to a mere 4% target on the basis of 1990 – the baseyear that every other nation uses (except of a few, for e.g. Australia).

I am exhausted and disappointed. This morning, I had another skype streaming with the ARD, the German TV – and told them in complete honesty – how speechless I was: ” If this wasnt a skype call with German TV, I would say nothing at all. ”

However, there is a lot to say and a lot of details and leaders here to be mentioned, blamed and shamed for what we are experiencing. This indeed seems to be a big show, a huge failure – and there are certain people that need to be blamed for it. Just in these minutes, I have heard that Angela Merkel herself is indeed blocking the talks within the EU as she does not want to move to a 30% goal. On the other hand, the UNFCCC has asked negotiators to stay a bit longer – till Sunday at least.

It is exactly as Nicole Wilke had told me before: About 300 people know whats going on – the other 20.000 out here spread rumors. And I am one of them.

Am Ende. Alleine. Im Bella Centre.

Das Ende naht. Das Ende von sechs Monaten Durchhalteparolen, Strategietreffen, Kampagnen, mutigen, heiteren, traurigen und erfolgreichen Phasen des Trackerdaseins. Es ist  zwei Uhr nachts und ich sitze noch immer im Bella Centre, dem Konferenzzentrum des COP15 in Kopenhagen.

Heute war wieder einer dieser Tage, an denen meine Stimmung nicht in Worte zu fassen, ja, die Frage nach dem “Und wie läuft’s?” eigentlich nicht zu beantworten war. Was soll ich schon sagen? Und was spielt es noch für eine Rolle? Für mich persönlich hat die Reise als Tracker viel gebracht, das ist wohl klar. Auch heute wieder: Ein schönes Interview mit Hermann Ott von den Grünen, ein paar interessante Gespräche am Rande, ein bißchen Planung für Aktionen in Deutschland und eine fast nächtliche Teilnahme beim COP – Meeting, das heute sage und schreibe bis auf 21:30 Uhr verschoben wurde.

Nach einem privaten Skype Call dann zum Abschied noch eine Portion Sitzstreick im Flur und: Fertig ist der Tracker-Tag. Doch das, was hier so romantisch und nach jugendlich-naivem Aktivismus klingen mag, ist alles andere als Anlass zum Spaßen. In den Inhalten meiner heutigen Gespräche verbag sich mal wieder das, was mich hier tagtäglich zum Grübeln bringt. Ilka von der deutschen Delegation sagte mir übrigens gegen 21 Uhr dann unser Gespräch endgültig ab… schlafen hätte man endlich können, so Ilka, wenn man doch nur gewusst hätte, dass heute wieder viele Stunden nur mit Warten verbracht würden….

So geht es auch mir. Und vielen anderen hier. Jan von Oxfam sitzt zu dieser Minute noch immer im Bella Centre und spekuliert darauf, dass er morgen noch drin sein darf (denn auch er hat kein Badge für morgen), wenn er einfach sitzen bleibt, die Nacht hier verbringt und dann morgen auf einem der Sofas hier wieder erwacht. Vielleicht, so die klitzekleine Chance, schmeißt ihn tatsächlich keiner raus. Doch uns ist klar: Die Security hat uns alle im Computer gespeichert, beim Verlassen des Gebäudes wird noch einmal ausgecheckt. So einfach ist das hier nicht. Auch der Sitzstreik der Jugendlichen wird mit gemischten Gefühlen betrachtet. Miliband, der britische Außen- und offenbar auch Umweltminister (oder zumindest verkauft er sich wohl auch als solchen) kam gerade noch vorbei und hielt ein Pläuschchen mit Anna, unserer britischen Trackerin. Auf der anderen Seite wartet hingegen leicht angespannt David, der Direktor von CAN International.

Er hat die ganze Zeit für den Zugang weniger CAN Vertreter (sprich von CAN Mitgliedsorganisationen) gekämpft…seine wohl berechtigte Sorge: Wenn nun Jugendliche einiger Mitgliedsorganisationen hier protestieren und den Sicherheitsleuten Widerstand leisten, werden auch diese wenigen morgen nicht mehr reingelassen…

So weit so gut, doch damit sind wir noch immer nicht beim eigentlichen inhaltlichen Teil des heutigen Verhandlungstages. Aber genau das vermittelt Euch einen Eindruck, wie man viel erzählen kann, ohne eigentlich etwas auszusagen. Und genau das passierte auch heute wieder in den Sitzungen. Während im großen Plenarsaal sämtliche Staatschefs rhetorisch gepfeilte Reden von sich gaben, wurde die COP (Conference of the Parties) erneut verschoben – dann wieder eröffnet um 21:30 Uhr, nur um festzustellen, dass keiner mit dem Text zufrieden ist, der auf dem Tisch liegt und der dänische Premier nun doch nochmals in private Konsultationen gehen muss.

“He is actually consulting on how to consult and with whom to consult on how to proceed”, so in etwa die Aussage der Madame Chair, … Mauritius hingegen bat ernsthaft um Schlaf und viele schlossen sich an.

Jonathan Pershing is a human being - and needs sleep!

Auf dem Weg nach draußen dann traf ich, einsam und allein auf dem Flur ausgerechnet den Mann, der noch letzte Nacht erneut viele Klammern und Veränderungen in den Verhandlungstext einzufügen wusste. Jene Klammern, die heute für die vielen Verzögerungen (unter anderem) gesorgt haben, weil wieder nichts klar und alles zweideutig war: Jonathan Pershing, der Chef-Unterhändler der USA. Doch auch er ist offenbar nur ein Mensch mit dem Bedürfnis nach Schlaf. So drehte er sich beim Hören meiner Schritte um und warf mir ein freundliches Lächeln zu. “Good night buddy.”

Vielleicht sind einige unserer von Menschen gemachten Differenzen ja doch zu überbrücken, wenn wir uns darauf zurück besinnen. Auf die uns allen gemeinsamen Bedürfnisse.

In dieser Sekunde kommt die Security… und schmeisst mich raus..genauso wie alle anderen Sitzstreiker… Bilder gibts morgen bei Flickr, wenn ich sie hochgeladen hab

]]> http://adoptanegotiator.org/2009/12/17/wenn-nichts-mehr-geht/feed/ 0 http://adoptanegotiator.org/2009/12/16/cop-closing-out-people/ http://adoptanegotiator.org/2009/12/16/cop-closing-out-people/#comments Wed, 16 Dec 2009 01:11:13 +0000 Ole Seidenberg http://adoptanegotiator.org/?p=7361 It’s only three days left until Cop15 ends – and the closer we get to this end, the more I feel that this becomes an exclusive process. Although I must admit that I don’t really know what all those thousands of civil society represantatives do here all day long (some admittetly seem to be in consultations with their coffee all the time), restricting the participation of civil society at the UN Copenhagen Climate Summit is neither a good sign for the ongoing negotiations. After waiting a mere 40 minutes in the queue outside this morning (rather than those 7 hours that some people waited yesterday), I got into the Bella Center today, due to the “Secondary Badge” that I own. But as I have heard tonight, there were another couple of thousands NGO-represantatives that wanted to get in – and did not get in after eight (!!) hours of waiting in the cold.

“This is a huge priviledge”, our coordinator Josh told us – only 30% of those accredited with any NGO got in today, but almost all the trackers. It certainly means a lot to us. However, it is not really less disappointing on the inside of this building, where we often need a third badge to actually access the meetings (the usually open Plenarys that is), but still cannot access the closed and informal meetings.

This process is getting more and more intransparent. Not only because of closing down the meetings, but due to the whole dynamics that are unfolding during these days. Apparently, it’s even intransparent to those that are really participating: This morning, I met Ilka Wagner on the hallway, the German Delegate responsible for the issue of “technology transfer”. We are trying to meet since last week, but haven’t managed so far. She was – once more – running from one room to the other.. no chance to get hold of her. This time, she told me, what had happened: They were re-starting to negotiate serveral texts in parallel. “I don’t know how this can actually work”, she said, looking frustrated and tired.

Let us not let them fool us...

People around the world have demanded that heads of state take personal responsibility for averting catastrophic climate change. They have demanded that leaders agree on a legally binding treaty that is both fair and ambitious. Many of them might not actually know what this is about. They might not have any idea about the dynamics of this process and the problems that are bound to it. But what strikes me most is that even those that should have an idea at this stage of the negotiations, seem to have no clue where this is heading to.

This afternoon, the European Youth had a meeting with a couple of European Environmental ministers, among them those from Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland. All of them were asked once more, when exactly they were planning to raise their emission reduction targets to 30% within the EU and, more importantly, whether they thought they would live up to their promise to do the best for upcoming generations.

It was disappointing. They were nice and cooperating, but none of them – as expected – said anything surprising. Of course, the EU wants to move to the 30% target, but it remains conditional. Conditional. Conditional with only three days of negotiations ahead. How is this supposed to work out, I ask? How are we supposed to trust our leaders in an environment, where we are locked out and all we here from them from day to day is a reiteration of their well-known statements? Lock-out on one side, a Dead-Lock on the other?

Later this afternoon, the high-level segment (the meeting of ministers and later heads of states this week) was welcomed by a group of young, blonde, Danish singers. It was once more a pretty ceremony. Even Prince Charles was there, speaking much longer than he was supposed to…all this ceremonial stuff fit quite well in the overall “marketing strategy” of this COP – and even Nicole Wilke (in our interview here) told me: This looks like an exhibition or a fair, but not like a conference where Heads of States discuss the future of our very survival. Frankly: Has any pretty ceremony ever changed politics? Will anything change within the next three days? Look at the “Hopenhagen”-Greenwashing-PR-Deals that came out of COP15 so far… Coca Cola is trying to present itself as the world’s saviour…. with a bottle of hope, everything will be okay. I don’t think so!

Later that night, there was a side event with Norbert Röttgen (Germanys environmental minister), RWE, Eon and the BDI President… interestingly, they discussed the use of CCS and nuclear energy as if it was the most normal ideas you could think of. Indeed, I found myself in this identity-crisis once more, when I realised: Being part of the NGO community that is full of “happy and optimistic” people sometimes dillutes my view of actual realities. Röttgen might have some good intentions. But those guys up their on the panel have (each one of them) more power in our country than Röttgen will ever have. They have market power and money. Röttgen is still fighting our own Development Minister about issues like additionality…and he repeatedly tries to excuse by saying he’s been to this post for only a mere 6 weeks.

I regret to be a pessimist at this point. I have never been a good and credible pessimist. But at this point, I want to sleep and pray I won’t have another nightmare. What’s happening here, right now, is nightmarish enough.

Demonstrations in Copenhagen were rather peaceful

It’s been a far too wonderful weekend in Copenhagen. As my girlfriend has been visiting, I have naturally  not got as much into the aggressive protesting mood I should have been in. The sun was shining, there were a couple of thousand colorfully dressed up people out there on the streets, some nice announcements.. and that’s about everything that I really remember.

Media – how could we expect otherwise – covered those few that were arrested rather than reporting on the generally peaceful atmosphere in Copenhagen. What was missing however was the feeling of absolute urgency. These days are so filled with creative ideas – on and offline – that you somehow feel overwhelmed by them, not ready to digest them to the degree they would deserve it.

Just today, the start of the second week, was another evidence of how little time we, the trackers, actually have to do what we came to do here: tracking!

I was arriving at about 9.00 am at the Bella Center – and found a queue that was longer than the Annex of the negotiation text (and that means quite something . I actually had to leave so that I could have another streaming with the ARD – or more precisely – with eins.extra Digital at 11 am. So I did and went to the Huset, our place for bloggers, aka Freshair Center.

There, we witnessed more strange things happening during this eventful day: The YesMen apparently have spread some really nice hoax of popular News Websites (among them the Wallstreet Journal, the New York Times and the Official COP15 Website!) with really similar URLs – sometimes hiding them behind shortened URLs like bit.ly and some media apparently picked it up.

Moreover, the G77 once more left the negotiations, reinforcing their call for a continued debate about the Kyoto Protocol rather just a single LCA track. It becomes clearer and clearer that there won’t be a bad compromise at the end of this confrence – it will rather fail completely. And to be quite frank: In case the European Union doesn’t move forward and put some serious money on the table, I don’t want this to be some kind of hypocrisy deal. Meanwhile, demonstrations continued in the city center of Copenhagen, where activists drew away the big CO2 Balloon that had been attached to the stones on the ground… I guess, they had their reason as well.

It’s been a very active day. And yet, I feel a bit paralyzed and don’t really know how to act, how to move forward from here. Well, Angela Merkel is coming soon, Norbert Roettgen even sooner. It’s time to prepare for those that have the power to implement. Let’s go from here. And try to keep up the good spirits, even though we don’t know what to measure them against. Tomorrow, at least, we got the so called “secondary badges” – we will be in – and be part of the “exclusive” group of those few being able to access the conference these days.

It had happened: Tuvalu had come out as the first country belonging to the SIDS (Small Island and Developing States) that would no longer just sit in the plenary and listen to the words of delegates reiterating what they have said over and over again in the past couple of years during all those different intercessionals, COPs, meetings, informals and even more informal informals. Tuvalu stood up, raised its voice and demanded a legally binding treaty – or an interruption of the talks if that was not even considered.

It had been an amazing and eventful day. I came out of the Bella Center, exhausted, but happy. And ran straight into a girl with a huge sign hanging around her neck: “You want a future for this earth? Go nuclear!”. I couldn’t believe my eyes, but thought it actually was a joke, an ironic gesture to lampoon Climatesceptics. But, I was proven wrong: Indeed, she was serious about this. And not only this. She also mentioned all the other typical wannabe arguments of Sceptics… oh gosh, while writing this, I can already anticipate all those possible comments below this blog that I actually don’t want to give the room to.

But on the other hand, it just strikes me 1) how many of these guys still exist and really believe they have a point and 2) how tempting it can be for someone being inside this process for half a year now to at least try to convince them that they are on the wrong track.

Just today, there was another chance to do so… on Facebook, another channel that invites people to comment, well – that’s the good and the bad side of Social Media at the same time, I guess. It took me about 1,5 hours to deliberately answer comments of a friend of friend, who questioned science due to the “Climategate-Scandal” and hence also questioned our ambitions to mobilise people back home to push their respective governments to cut carbon emissions in a more ambitious manner.

Not only would CO2 not be dangerous for us, not only would global warming not be made by humans, but even better than that: Supposedly, there was a huge conspiracy behind all this, trying to force poor countries into even more poverty by making them cut CO2 that they so urgently need to survive (develop, that is).

I have no words for this. I have tried, but I cannot be appreciative of this. I do welcome other viewpoints and constructive criticism. But the way they argue reminds me of all the other conspiracy theories. Those around September 11th, those around cigarettes not causing cancer. It scares me. It scares me that it is actually possible to get attention with this. And above all, it worries me that I have been drawn into wasting my time on this.

I will therefore not go into the details once more. I will not try to disprove anyone here. I will just leave this post as it stands – a personal note about personal feelings that touched my heart and mind when being confronted with this weird species of deniers.

Find the number to call your head of government, using the drop down box, below. Most offices are open 8.30am-5pm. Call and ask for one of your leader’s climate staff. Beneath the box are some suggestions for what to say, as well as a comments form where you can share details of your call with other Avaaz members!

Talking points for EU calls

1. The Copenhagen talks risk collapsing already. European leaders must do all you can to rescue a real deal. Become active dealmakers. Rebuild trust with poorer countries by offering fairer and more ambitious proposals.

2. Offer real money for climate finance this week. Say specifically how much the EU will contribute by 2020. Identify new funding sources like aviation and shipping revenues. Increase the global figure to a more credible €135bn — on top of aid promises already made.

3. Strengthen Europe’s emission targets, making real cuts of 30%-40%, and stop relying on loopholes, offsets and accounting tricks. To be fit for the future, Europe needs transformative investment in low-carbon recovery. Otherwise we will fall behind.

People are lined up inside the COP making calls. If you’re out there online, join in.

We have to capture everything in pictures. Sometimes, it can be annoying.

It’s only Day 3 of these negotiations, but all of us are already going to our limits. 3-4 hours sleep, tons of documents, many different actions and information flows… confusing interviews and confrontations with delegates, let alone breaking mobile phones and lost local simcards. There is a lot of things that exhaust us every day – and yet, our role here keeps gaining momentum, outreach and importance. Just yesterday, I have talked to my leading German negotiator: Nicole Wilke. I have asked her personally about her thoughts regarding us and our role, not only the trackers, but including all the different kinds of activists and civil society organisations.

To understand the strategies and policies of all those different countries, we listen closely to briefings by NGO-Experts.

She had told me in the past and repeated yesterday: These UN-conferences are a huge game and within this, everyone of us has to play her or his role. All those diverse sides that come together and form the dynamics of these negotiations are important to come to an agreement that lives up to our expectations.

Delegates in Copenhagen cannot really do as much as we might think and expect from them: In the end, they are doing their job, which is “representing” your countries – your government that is… so in most of the cases, it can be very frustrating for us to talk to delegates and try to push them in any direction, when they are indeed just the “long arm” of their respective ministers and heads of state.

We meet our negotiators. But sometimes, they just don't answer our questions!

However, we do sometimes gain some insights by talking to them – and after having known them for about six months now, we can figure when they need to argue along the lines of something they actually don’t really believe in personally.

Activism in all its forms – except the violent ones(!) – is not only drawing the media attention to all those important cornerstones and sometimes tricky loopholes, it is also making these events a lot more colorful. And even though we might be tired and exhausted after just three days, we will certainly not give up until the day we got that real deal that we all need to have this amazing amount of fun also in the future…

Meeting your delegate means keeping the balance between keeping a good relationship and the distance for professional skepticism

This conference has just started and for me, it started with an amazing “explosion” of media exposure and exciting meetings – the most exciting being my first interview with my lead negotiator Nicole Wilke.

I had just sent her an email last night, asking for a meeting in between all the sessions she would have to manage and handle at the same time. And there it was: Her reply, inviting me to the office of the German Delegation at 2:30 pm today. I followed her invitation… found my way through the long halls of boxes and containers (really small ones, as if those negotiators actually were asylum seekers and finally found the German Delegation’s office booth.

There she was: Sitting in a small corner of a “meeting room”, working on her computer, waiting for my visit. There I was: Sitting in front of her, being exited and stressed, but also well prepared with some “question-munition”.

First question was, how could it be otherwise: “How are you?”…

“Well, we are finally here”, she said…”reason enough to be in a good mood.”

The doors of the German delegation are still opened for me..

The conversation continued and I found Nicole being quite emotional and excited about Copenhagen herself, not less than any of us trackers and other young & concerned citizens.

However, I obviously didn’t visit her to share some 30 minutes of being “happy together”, but also wanted to get some straightforward answers to questions that had come up during the first day and hours of this 15th Conference of Parties:

- Why have some of our elected representatives in the Bundestag chosen to take money for adaptation to Climate Change from those funds that have long been promised for development aid purposes?

- When does the EU finally play its “financial card”? How can it be that they wait so long to finally come out with some more concrete numbers? And why is it not a reliable 110 billion dollars of public money, but rather a mixture of different, probably unreliable financial sources that they refer to?

- Will it be possible to have a first draft of a legal text in the Annex of this Cop’s final document?

- What does she think about Obama’s visit?

- … and the US Environmental Protection Agency’s move to declare CO2 as an “endangerment to public health”?

- How does she feel about the activists actions, the demonstrations that are expected to be happening on December 12th…and in general about the NGO’s work?

- …and finally: Her new environmental minister Norbert Röttgen?

You can probably foresee that she did not answer all those questions, but also used her professional ability to dodge me were needed in a friendly and diplomatic, but very effective way.

However, there is something to be told: She blushed when I asked suggestively: “Well, I am pretty sure you do not support that Germany now starts to take Adaptation money from development aid funds – you told me otherwise in Barcelona just a couple of weeks ago… and I have the feeling that your minister and boss Norbert Röttgen doesn’t like this idea either.”

Indeed, Nicole Wilke had told me in an interview that the EU had promised new and additional money – an interview that I was then not allowed to publish – the environmental ministry even called me on my mobile to tell me so! So what am I – as a young activist – now supposed to think?!? Are those guys just lying to us? Straight to our faces? Are they just turning everything the way they want from one day to the other?

Well, Nicole. I hope your buddies back home get their maths straight!

But: There is one slight, but tricky difference, as she told me: It is actually supposed to be “new” money. But new in a sense that it comes on top of what has been transferred before. Not on top of those promised 0.7 % of the German GDP, but on top of those 0.38% that have been achieved (only) by now…. well, let’s check the Greenpeace Climate Math Test that I was confronted with when coming out of the subway station today: It clearly shows: 1+1 is not 1, but 2 – and so we do need extra money for new purposes and extra needs!

Well, dear readers, there is tons of more information that I would love to share with you as quickly as possible – and this post was supposed to be online last night (but the Wifi on our home – the ship – broke down)-… but I gotta run… to the next meetings… keep following as I will keep following and tracking those daring to represent us. I will update this post during the day with more information on Wilke’s answers to our questions and demands…

Kein Ergebnis

Keiner der Verhandlungsparteien kann das wirklich wollen – und keiner will das wirklich, soweit ich informiert bin. Denn selbst jene Verhandlungsparteien, die den Anschein erwecken, als blockierten sie mit aller Macht ein konstruktives Voranschreiten der Verhandlungen (so z.B. die Gewinner des “Fossil of the Day Awards”), wollen letztlich nicht öffentlich vor der internationalen Staatengemein als Buhmann dastehen. Wenn blockiert wird, dann meistens so taktisch und verklausuliert, dass die “langsam mahlenden Mühlen der Verhandlungsdiplomatie” schuld sind, aber kein Regierungschef sich zu Hause vorwerfen lassen muss, er wäre gescheitert.

Eine Ausnahme gibt es dennoch: Etwas radikalere Gruppen wie etwa die so genannte NCAP Fraktion, deren Kürzel dem Namen “Never trust a Cop” entspringt. Das Wortspiel im Namen zeigt es bereits: Einerseits wird der Polizei als Gegenkraft zu den Demonstranten nicht vertraut, andererseits wird das dem UN-Verhandlungsprozess zu Grunde liegende Konstrukt grundsätzlich in Frage gestellt… und nicht zuletzt ein radikaler Systemwechsel (z.B. weg vom Kapitalismus) gefordert.

Wahrscheinlichkeit: Noch ist selbst dieses komplette Scheitern durchaus möglich und denkbar. Vor allem, da die Kernfragen der geteilten Verantwortung noch lange nicht gelöst sind. Weder sind die Finanzzusagen seitens der Industriemächte deutlich und konkret genug, noch die Bekenntnisse zu deutlicheren Schritten bei Emissionsreduktionen auch nur annährend auf dem Level, das die Wissenschaft für ein Überleben kommender Generationen für notwendig hält.

Insbesondere Entwicklungs- und Inselstaaten wie Tuvalu, den Salomonen Inseln, und den Malediven steht das Wasser bis zum Hals… in der Abschlusssitzung in Barcelona fiel erstmals die Einschätzung, entwickelte Länder führten mit dem Hinauszögern und gezielten Verwaschen eines brauchbaren Ergebnisses tatsächlich einen stillen und langsamen Krieg gegen die ärmeren Nationen dieser Welt. Klar ist: Entwicklungsländer lassen sich nicht gern an der Nase herumführen. Bevor wir ein schlechtes Abkommen in Stein meißeln, werden sie ggf. ein Scheitern in Kauf nehmen – oder auch herbeiführen, um ihr Glück im nächsten Jahr erneut zu versuchen.

Mein Gefühl dazu: Hmm. Ich denke, ich wäre erschöpft. Sprachlos. Müde. Und einfach so enttäuscht, dass mir jegliche Energie zum Protest fehlen würde. Vielleicht ist Schocklähmung der richtige Ausdruck. Zumindest für einen Tag. Und dann würde es wieder losgehen. Müssen.

Ein schwaches, finales…und nicht mal bindendes Abkommen

Diese Form ist so ziemlich das schlechteste Ergebnis, das ich persönlich mir vorstellen kann. Da in Kopenhagen nur die erste Woche wirklich von den eingespielten Verhandlungsdelegationen verhandelt wird (was kaum reicht, um sich anständig aufzuwärmen), ist die Zeit für das Aushandeln konkreter Eckpunkte einfach verdammt knapp. Machen wir uns nichts vor: Jede nur denkbare NGO kommuniziert derzeit, dass ein “fair, ambitious und legally binding” Deal aus Kopenhagen rauskommen muss. Doch wie viele besorgte Bürger daheim haben schon die Zeit, sich mit den Feinheiten zu beschäftigen? Eben: Kaum jemand. Ergo: Wenn die große Politik wie nach dem G8-Gipfel in L’Aquila von den heimatlichen Fernsehschirmen kundtut, sie hätte einen Deal verabschiedet, klingt das zunächst einmal besser, als ein Scheitern auf ganzer Linie zugeben zu müssen. Ein mögliches Beispiel: Es wird von einem wichtigen Schritt in die Zukunft und erheblichen Fortschritten seit dem Klimagipfel in Bali gesprochen, bei dem einzelne positive Beispiele herausgegriffen werden. Details wie das Anrechnen von Geld für Klimaschutz auf Entwicklungshilfe werden bewusst verschwiegen.

Wahrscheinlichkeit: Da in der zweiten Woche schon Minister (also Umweltminister) und Regierungschefs (unter anderem Merkel und Obama) verhandeln, ist ein gestenreiches Abschließen der Verhandlungen durchaus denkbar. NGOs und Entwicklungsländer warnen schon jetzt vor einem “Greenwashing Deal” – und würden wohl wie erwähnt eher ein Scheitern riskieren, als eine solch heuchlerische Geste.

Mein Gefühl dazu: Ich wäre entsetzt. Angewiedert. Und für eine Sekunde ratlos, wie ich Aktivisten und politisch interessierte junge Menschen daheim mobilisieren und zur Gegenwehr aufrufen soll, wenn ein strahlend lächelnder US-Präsident neben einem zwei Köpfe kleineren französischen Staatspräsidenten im TV verkündet, alles sei auf dem Weg. Dann würde ich mich zusammenraufen und dafür plädieren, das Tracker-Projekt zu verlängern.

Es geht in die Verlängerung…

Wie schon in Bonn, Bangkok und Barcelona liegen auch in Kopenhagen Unmengen an Verhandlungstext vor den Delegierten…und ich als Beobachter kann mir beim besten Willen nicht vorstellen, dass diese sich über Nacht auf magische Weise gekürzt haben sollen. In den vergangenen Monaten durfte bzw. musste ich ein Gefühl für das langsame Tempo dieser Verhandlungen entwickeln. Ein schnelleres Tempo ist trotz des geballten Drucks der weltweiten Klimabewegung eigentlich nicht vorstellbar. Oder doch? In jedem Fall könnten einige wesentliche, wenngleich nicht hinreichend aussagekräftige Punkte der Verhandlungen geklärt werden…ohne jedoch letztlich ein Ergebnis vorweisen zu können. Im allgemeinen Singsang einer grüneren Zukunft könnte diese Dynamik dazu führen, dass keiner so recht sauer und enttäuscht sein kann, weil sich einfach keine Schuldigen ausmachen lassen. Industrienationen würden dies womöglich bereits als Erfolg feiern, Entwicklungsländer und NGOs würden wie gehabt mit Protest reagieren und deutlich ambitionierteres Handeln in 2010 einfordern. Eine Verlängerung ließe sich nicht vermeiden, denn einne Deal brauchen wir ja trotzdem noch…

Wahrscheinlichkeit: Leider viel zu wahrscheinlich. Ich will es nicht wahr haben. Fragt mich in zwei Wochen nochmal.

Mein Gefühl dazu: Was soll ich sagen. Hab ich was anderes erwartet? Und jetzt? Irgendwie würde ich damit wohl umgehen wie mit einem Kind, das einfach nicht hören will, obwohl es genau will, dass seine Eltern nur das Beste für es wollen. Man wird es nicht los. Man muss ja damit leben. Manchmal möchte man ihm wie in Seattle den Hintern versohlen, aber man weiß doch, dass das heute irgendwie nicht mehr so richtig angebracht ist. Und man liebt es. Und kann nicht ohne es. Oder doch? Einen Hinterspalt halte ich mir offen. Für mehr Wut.

Ein starkes, komplettes, aber noch nicht legal bindendes Abkommen

Wir hoffen auf mehr. Wir fordern mehr. Wir tun dies zurecht. Wenn ich von “wir” spreche, meine ich die internationale Zivilgesellschaft. Und doch ist uns bewusst, dass ein starkes Abkommen, das alle Stolpersteine aus dem Weg räumt und eine Einingung über die bisherigen Streitpunkte ermöglicht, ein riesiger Erfolg wäre. Auch dann, wenn das “Gießen in Rechtstext”, wie Nicole Wilke es im Interivew mit mir nannte, noch sechs bis zwölf Monate in Anspruch nehmen würde. Vor gut zwei Jahren gab es in Bali lediglich das Bekennen zu einem “Action Plan” bzw. einer “Road Map”. Dieses Abkommen sollte hingegen die wesentlichen Details in ihrer Gänze beantworten: Wer reduziert seine Emissionen um wie viel und bis wann? Welcher Anteil davon wird im eigenen Lande erreicht, welcher Anteil wird sich durch so genanntes Offsetting und Clean Development Mechanisms ermogelt? Wer zahlt welche Gelder in einen Klimafonds ein, um die Anpassung in ärmeren Ländern zu ermöglichen? Wie entwickeln sich Entwicklungsländer zukünftig kohlenstoffarm? Und wer stellt dafür auf welchem Wege die notwendige Technologie zur Verfügung?

Wären diese Fragen wirklich geklärt, so bestünde durchaus Anlass zum Feiern. Mit einem Haken: Das Herauszögern eines rechtlich verbindlichen Abkommens müsste in diesem Ergebnis so fest verankert begrenzt werden, dass sich keiner der Verhandlungsparteien auch nur einen Millimeter aus dieser Schlinge herauswinden kann, die sich dann in sechs, spätestens aber 12 Monaten in 2010 zuzieht. Ein Rechtstext ist, so zeigt die Erfahrung mit Tausenden nahezu wirkungsloser UN-Resolutionen, offenbar leider Bedingung, um politische Bekenntnisse auch zur Implementierung zu führen. Kyoto war ein solch bindendes Abkommen und genügte dennoch nicht, um alle ratifizierenden Staaten ausreichend zum Handeln zu bewegen. Wie soll das erst mit einem gedruckten Lippenbekenntnis gelingen?

Wahrscheinlichkeit: Wenn wir alles geben, wenn Obama tatsächlich am 18.12. seinen Nobel-Vorschuss-Lorbeeren gerecht wird, wenn der neue Umweltminister Norbert Röttgen noch ein paar Überraschungen mitbringt und Merkel nach einem durchwachsenen Wahljahr die Chance zur umweltpolitischen Profilierung nutzt: Dann ist ein solches Ergebnis durchaus im Bereich des möglichen. Ich kämpfe dafür, dass dies eintrifft. Ich würde mir nichts mehr wünschen…und sollte es wirklich passieren, würde ich wohl eine Zeit lang ungläubig die Augen aufreißen. Und dann laut losschreien.

It’s been a great day yesterday for a passionate tracker, as I finally got to meet Nicole Wilke again here in Barcelona, accompanied by my friends Diana and Sönke from 350.org. First, they handed over their booklet showing pictures of more than 5000 actions worldwide that have been going on on October 24th, the International Day of Climate Action. Right after that, I’ve asked Nicole your questions that I’ve collected beforehand through Facebook. And guess what: She seemed to like the idea of YOU asking YOUR questions rather than me coming up with my questions all the time and answered all of them in detail.

Now, guess what: I had this post prepared including all the questions and answers as an English transcription. I have sent this to the Press Officer of the German Environmental Ministry and kindly asked for their permission to publish my interview with Nicole Wilke on this blog…. AND: IT was REJECTED!

I know that as a press professional, one might experience this every other day. And it is part of the job that interviews don’t get the confirmation they need to be published. But, I am not a press professional, I am simply a concerned citizen and a blogger. Someone who wants to share with you guys out there what I experience here every day. I had taken your questions and asked them for you. I have put a dayload of work into this. Your questions have been answered and now, I am not even allowed to publish those answers?

The alleged reason for this rejection: There have been general elections just a couple of weeks ago in Germany, there is a new Enivoronmental Minister – and the whole ministry is waiting for new, concrete guidelines by the new minister, also regarding their communications and press-work. I do understand that.

However, this is yet again a rather frustrating experience that shows that the dynamics and speed of blogging and asking questions via Social Media does not yet fit the old structures and decision-making processes of some of our ministries and bureaucracies. I cannot help it, but although the lady on the phone was really nice and asked me not to take this personally, I am definitely disappointed – personally!

It also shows something else: The weird and sometimes misleading ways that so-called diplomacy works: Some things are said, but not meant. Others are meant, but not said. And in between, everything remains up to your personal assessment of the situation.

The only thing that made me smile today after this experience was a meeting with a Campaigns professional from one of the leading NGO-networks here, who shared his thoughts and frankly told us that even the most experienced experts on the ground are puzzled because of the ups and downs of this intense, but far too short week in Barcelona.

Well, there is one thing, I can tell you, especially in case you belong to my German readership:

Nicole Wilke was cooperating very well, she is – according to my personal review procedure – a very capable and smart person and: She stated that Germany’s national reduction target stands at 40% below 1990 levels by 2020 (as written down in the new Coalition agreement) – which is more than the EU is actually ready to shoot for and as much as most of the NGO community is expecting.

Of course, the devil – again – lies in the detail and I can neither tell you whether this is realistic nor whether it might just be achieved by a lot of offsetting, but: It let’s me rest in peace for at least one more night, before this is closing and we are heading towards the final round… in Copenhagen.