This might be useful to understand what dynamics are playing out in the contact group on numbers from annex 1

The negotiations center around bringing the United States on the board to sign on to a legally binding treaty since it seems impossible for US politically to sign on to the kyoto protocol. US being at a great bargaining position globally has the power to lead. It has the power to lead other big countries who have enough potential for leadership themselves but need to be catalysed by the US. Eurupean Union, Japan, Australia will only speak out , once US has.

So what will make US move?

From negotiating positions we could see that it would like emerging economies to take stronger commitments. But, was this for India, China, Suth Africa , Brazil etc? Or was it just for one of these countries which has the best bargaining position to make the negotiations move forward?

Chinese Dragon and Indian Tiger

China, with its image of the emerging leader in the world with respect to technology, economic growth, infrastructure,knowledge and capacity , is at a higher bargaining position than the European Union with respect to making or breaking the deal here at Copenhagen.

So where does India fit into all this?

I can just say, China played a very smart game of hiding behind India, if India goes against China and starts putting pressure on them , they loose most of the stronghold in the G77 and give a chance to the developed nations to take advantage of this division. Although if India continues to stick with China and the developing country argument , they will be pressurized to sign on to a deal with commitments for the developing countries or there would be no agreement in Copenhagen. China on one hand can do more, but unfortunately India will not be able to extend more than whats on the table due to a specific mandate being given by the government which clearly draws the red lines.

India and China are having highly coordinated meetings and its interesting to see that have they discussed on the points if collaborations and points if conflicts among themselves? Or is it that they are just having “Chai” together making it extremely convenient for themselves to run away from responsibilities.

It’ll be interesting to see :

Who succumbs under pressure first?

Seeing the bargaining positions of both countries, it doesn’t look like any is going to succumb under pressure ?!They are pretty much going to hang on to their cards and fight this one out. Although getting some insight from the Indian Negotiators it really looks like the Chair and President of the CMP – meeting of parties will come up with its draft text which India will be forced to sign on to. And frankly, I do not see enough resistance.

Who has a hidden agenda in this , India , china or/and US, and who will succeed?

This question is probably worth at least 10 Billion US dollars right now? In my opinion, China will clearly get away with doing less, so will US( obviously) and India too leaving this deal with a sense of a GREENWASH.

What will India do if China moves?

This one I leave open to all of you , and the one who answers it correctly might win a free pass into Bella Centre( na, just kidding)

He also connected with the national hub back in India to answer questions from students and farmers and civil society.

Also, he mentioned that we were closely co-ordinating with the African Group who are adamant to stall the negotiations due to slow pace of the Kyoto Protocol track.

India, where I come from is beautiful, dignified and wise just like my grandmother. This insight and depth of argument India brings to the table at the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen is well researched and reflects its experience in negotiating for years.

When India was young , the rest of the developed world was busy polluting the world and India, now that it’s coming off age, is calling for these developed countries to take ambitious binding commitments as per their historical responsibilities and to help India age gracefully by giving them adequate finance and technology to grow but on a low carbon pathway.

India being the second most populous country and the fifth largest amount of emissions has almost negligible per capita emissions and also it’s not that old and polluting as its next door neighbour China is. The poverty in my country has actually grown over years, my grandmother feels that we are not able to correlate growth with better standard of living and that’s why perhaps we figure very low in the HDI ( Human Development Index) as compared to other developing economies.

Despite all this India really has done more than it holds capacity (read: behaved more mature than its age). Recently in the parliament Jairam Ramesh, our environment and forest minister has announced that India will reduce the intensity of carbon by 24 per cent by 2020. Apart from this India has ratified the Kyoto Protocol and come out with its National Action Plan on Climate change which has 8 missions one of which is among the most ambitious solar mission plans to generate around 20 gegawatts of power by 2022 and the other to enhance renewable energy sources in the country.

But grandmothers don’t like kids peeping into their purses.

My grandmother always tells me how much money she has, but she’d never allow me to search her purse. Similarly India will give bi-annual reports to the UNFCCC about its emission reduction actions but will never allow international scrutiny for its domestically funded actions. It would also like all the finance offered to be additional and not as Christmas gift (read:ODA)

Grandmothers hold on to traditions.

Grandmother

India has always put forward its stance on how the text being negotiated is not in line with the Convention (UNFCCC body principles) and the Bali Action Plan which was enforced by parties at the landmark COP13 at Bali. It feels that the text favours rich countries and most of the statements try and move away from the principles that have been agreed upon.

This was again reflected in the recent tussle between the small island states and the advanced developing economies on whether to start discussions on amending the Kyoto Protocol and also bring in a new protocol. Since the Kyoto Protocol safeguards the disparities within rich and poor, with its common but differentiated responsibilities (one of the only global negotiations where this holds true), India will continue to defend the protocol and block any move which will enable the richer countries to buy time and commit less and the conference to deviate from its core agenda – like it did here in Copenhagen.

I often remind my grandmother, Nani ma you need to accept we live in a new world

I urge the Indian government to see that they are putting so many people at risk, the lives of many of my own friends from the island nations. Could it not do anything to try and see whether they could get a more ambitiuous deal? Could they not push the US harder, take the mike and make a bold statement that the European Union should show leadership?

I am sure that the reasons for India blocking Tuvalu’s proposal to amend the Kyoto protocol is not to escape from their own responsibilities but to make sure that developed country obligations (overdue) are commited first and attention from it is not diverted.

India wants to ensure a deal in Copenhagen.

When your grandmother needed to convince you, she would try to use all the ploys she could.

India needs to do the same. It should empower its stakeholders to raise a voice and aggressively engage with the Indian media, Indian civil society, the youth, and indigineous communities to progressively put pressure on the developed nations to deliver on their responsibilities.

Raise a voice, get on twitter, use facebook, use the latest technology to get your word out there!

Message from Heaven: Great grandmother writes to grandmother

Dear Daughter, all of us grow old and mature , but please keep in mind the legacy you’re leaving behind for your children. First of all accept that you will age. You will grow old. Your emissions will peak and at the rate you’re growing, most likely, you’ll have to take emission cuts in the future. Set the example for your children who will then raise their own children.

Be vocal and bold.

That’s all I ask.

Seriously, at this point ,that’s all I ask…..

The following was the letter
Hon Jairam Ramesh, Minister
Ministry of Environment
The Government of India
New Delhi, India

Yours Sincerely,
South Asian Youth