The only ray of sunshine comes when you have a great dinner , share a laugh with you colleagues and shop. In the evening I took a detour from the main station and just went and stood in the store . Looked at the happy kids, the enthusiastic teenagers, the worried mothers and the overworked saleswomen doing there rounds in the H &M store in Bonn. Having the chance to see colours and shoes and bags rather then the placards of countries and people fighting over whether a technical paper should be presented gave me hope that maybe no matter what goes inside the UNFCCC, life still moves on , you still love ice cream and girls still love shopping.

No doubt that there were wide interconnections in life that we as humans are so closely and neatly woven into. Everything can also be traced back to the people inside the UNFCCC and the decisions they influence and make.

Its interesting to note that among us in Maritim are roaming around 50 -60 accredited Oil Lobbyists. They have been polluting the talks and disrespecting the very spirit of why the convention was set up in the first place. These lobbyists have worked there way up all the way to not only civil society and media but country delegates themselves.

The Oil Producing and Exporting countries face the most amount of danger economically , considering almost 80 % of their GDP comes from the export of oil. Rather then seeing this as an opportunity to switch to an alternative fuel they take the easiest path that of calling themselves the “victim” of climate change

OIL has proved to be thicker than blood and here is a simple explanation why. The Oil producing countries not only lost all logic but are now dictated by this slimy oil running through their veins. Because of the way this disease makes them behave they were awarded a fossil today.

The fossil goes to these four Parties for risking the good faith and integrity of the negotiations by blocking all attempts to secure a technical review of the 1.5 degrees target and suggesting that vulnerable countries use “google” to get information that they need/want. They did this in the teeth of emotional pleas from vulnerable countries and numerous rounds of diplomatic efforts to reach a compromise. Saudi Arabia even gave us a list of traded goods which would be in peril from a 1.5 degrees target. See if you can spot which one is their true concern: rice, cocoa, tomatoes, coal, oil…. (If you’re stuck, look up their chief export on Google.)

Now that they have stalled the negotiations on the scientofoc aspect one can only wish that the talks at Cancun are also not stalled and that it migth not be a curtain raiser to more nasty drama to unfold at the UNFCCC negotiations.

Outside the UNFCCC , OIL is making news, apparently so much news that BP the big oil company had to buy off the terms oil spill from google to control the falling stock value in the stock markets. Its a shame that the big media cant see how much of this problem of the oil spill is linked to what going on inside the negotiations.

This is why they got a honorary fossil today:

BP-USA is awarded an Honorary Fossil Award from CAN International for fostering our addiction to fossil fuels, an addiction that is driving global warming towards dangerous climate change and lies behind the disaster unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico.

The consequences of foregoing a global agreement to move off fossil fuels and invest in a low-carbon future are clear – scientists have run the numbers – unless warming is checked temperatures will increase way beyond the threshold for catastrophic climate change.

For some countries the toll is already mounting.  As the negotiations began here in Bonn, hundreds died in India and Pakistan during the hottest heat wave on record, with temperatures shooting over 50 degrees Celsius (122 F).

This is bitterly ironic given that we have alternatives. Each year we delay, we pass by opportunities to invest in clean energy.  The International Energy Agency has calculated the cost of passing by those opportunities at $500 billion a year. At same time $100 billion a year in subsidies are paid to fossil fuel companies worldwide.

Checking climate change and sustaining economic growth depends upon an international agreement to invest in clean energy.

BP-USA, a leader in fossil-fuel development that has played out so disastrously in the Gulf of Mexico, is awarded an Honorary Fossil for failing fulfill its responsibility to help break the fossil-fuel addiction it has fostered and address climate change.

Hoping for a better future where blood is valued more than oil and where there wouldn’t be any climate talks , and I can go shopping without worrying that , oh my god, I gotta save the world!

Bonn Polluters?

The smell of your skin lingers on me now
You’re probably on your flight back to your hometown
I need some shelter of my own protection baby

Be with myself in center, clarity, peace, serenity

After a long tough day one always needs a long way back home, listening to the favourite bollywood songs and noticing the flowers on your way back. With songs comes the associations and memories of people and different stages of ones life. You fondly remember those sweet nothings in school, dancing like wild late into the night and the light jazz that eeps you hooked to your work.

None the less you need that special place, where you can run to every now and then which brings you back to your centre gives you clarity and peace.

The path that I’m walking, I must go alone
I must take the baby steps till I’m full grown
Fairy tales don’t always have a happy ending,  do they?
And I for seek the dark ahead, if I stay

College is over, girl you need to step into the real world. Everything is no longer given to you readymade on a platter. But you learn by making your own mistakes , this gradual process is filled with hurdles, doubt , questioning, self analysing and searching for purpose.  Coupled with all this is the most important feature that is the UNCERTAINTY and CONTINUATION of life no matter what.

Just imagine how Yvo might be feeling considering that he has been so close to the process and Secretaria , where he has built relationships and bonds for his life. I can imagine things being like a family , with the same people negotiators and observers you meeting on and on again. Its all about people management and that what Yvo did best. He understood and put himself in everyone’s  shoes and practiced conflict resolution.

Letting go is never easy and saying goodbye is the worst part of every relationship but what has to be dine must be. Some part ways on really bad. Whats important that at the Farewell we highlight the person for what he has been and how he has maken a difference , unfortunately I did not see any of this in Christiana’s ( the new exec secretary of UNFCCC) speech. Over that in her over motherly tone she used the show and tell mechanism to make Yvo follow her instructions like a baby to understand why he;d been presented with shoes which have UNFCCC 2006-10 written over it.

The plenary jam packed had fcr once a deafening silence and waited in anticipation for Yvo to speak. In his signature style he was funny and incorporated his punch lines to keep the mood animated but somewhere behind those word and laughs was a sense of heaviness , sadness of leaving.

Most of us might be thinking if we would be in his shoes we would have been relieved to be out of the process but nonetheless you always come back home to your family and the UNFCCC had become his family.

Like a little school mate in the school yard
We’ll play Jacks and UNO cards
I’ll be your best friend  And you’ll be mine, valentine
Yes, you can hold my hand if you want to ,Cause I want to hold yours, too
We’ll be playmates and lovers ,and share our secret worlds

Yvo in his personal farewell to us gave a reflection of the many relationships he has made over the course of his tenure. You have weirdly become integrated into the ecosystem something like what was shown in the movie Avatar. More than Yvo’s coordination its the feats he has achieved in getting to an actual consensus building exercise to get a roadmap, action plan , protocol and an accord in place. He says in his speech:

I have had the honour of working for you and with you to achieve this. In some cases our relationship has lasted for almost four years; in others it is closer to 14. Philip Gwage, Harald Dovland, Bernaditas Muller, Bill Hare, Mohammad Al Sabban, Richard Kinley and Michael Zammit Cutajar are just a few of the many that have sought, in those 14 years or more, to find a way forward that reconciles the seemingly irreconcilable…

It will be hard to fill the void Yvo has left for us. The only thing in our hands to accept and welcome in the new executive secretary and wishes she only fills Yvo’s spot. But I guess one has to move on and that too for the better,in Yvos’ words- The Copenhagen conference did not entirely deliver what anyone hadexpected or hoped for. There is a multitude of reasons for this. But, as Professor Al Sabban said only yesterday, we have experienced disappointments before and have
advanced in spite of them.

I hope you know, I hope you know ,That this has nothing to do with you
It’s personal, myself and I ,We got some straightening out to do
And I’m gonna miss you like a child misses their blanket
But I’ve gotta get a move on with my life ,It’s time to be a big girl now
And big girls don’t cry ,don’t cry, don’t cry, don’t cry

You have been a true inspiration, the tracker team salutes you and wishes you the very best for your  future.

Hunger is priceless , for feeding it you need MASTERCARD

Given the vast negative effects of runaway climate change one needs to not only reduce emissions ie mitigate but also adapt to the adverse effects since countries might lack the capacity and resources to do so on there own.  Hence the story of financial mechanisms in the UNFCCC begins with the concept that there is a requirement for a pool of finance and there are countries who are able and obligated to provide this finance upfront ( developed countries) to the developing countries ( refer to convention article 4.3) since they are the ones who have caused the problem.

The UN Secretary General appointed a High Level Advisory Group on Climate Finance (AGF) to determine look at private and public sources of finance and to make a final report of recommendations just prior to Cancun. Today in the afternoon they held an open discussion to highlight the methodology they were working with. The group is chaired by   H E Mr Ato Newai , Chief economic advisor to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. There presentation would assist in explaining the key issues of finance in course of 2010.

the amount and criteria of assessment of need

time period of the finance coming in and

the sources of funding

Lunch

Where the restaurant picks up its supplies

Climate Finance can be broken down into two broad sources (these sources also form the working groups that have been formed under the advisory group on finance of which the meeting was held today.On the obvious sources comes from the ODA – Money given by developed countries as development assistance and the other would be the mechanism setup by the UNFCCC that is the Adaption Fund , now over and above this the finance that is needed can be mobilized by the following:

ADDITIONAL PUBLIC FINANCE

1. Carbon Finance Public revenue – this comes from the auctioning of the AAUs- Assigned amount unit , assigned to all the developed world under the kyoto protocol,  as  a part of the emissions trading mechanism

2. International Transport – This would be the bunker fuel levies and levies on the international air and maritime transport

3. Other carbon related mechanisms – carbon taxation and carbon border adjustment- tariffs and taxes on imported goods  which I had talked in detail about in my previous blog

4. Role of Multilateral organizations and linking it to the the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights and using that to create additional finance

5.International finance transfer taxes

6. Direct Budget Contributions- this would be a pool of the GNP of countries given for adaptation and capacity building in the annex 1.

ADDITIONAL PRIVATE FINANCE

1. Using Public finance to leverage private investment is a bit like when you use feed in tariffs to attract private sector investment into the sector

2. Private companies having there own compliance mechanisms and carbon offsetting in the carbon markets.

no free lunch

How do we ensure the kids get appropriate serving of lunch

The criteria for the assessment of the money brought in as per the advisory group on finance

1. Efficiency – this would take into account the impacts on costs , market developments and economic development and economic growth.

2. Incidence and Equity – Incidence in burden of source of finance between nations and within the working groups or within nations.

3. Practicality – institutional design and rules , law and legal form of it. Seeing whether we could implement it as an independent decision of the COP or as a part of a treaty.

4. Political acceptability among different countries and different constituencies.

5. Domestic Budgeting and seeing the competitiveness and trade.

6. Reliability/ Predictability – Checking how stable the revenue stream is from the source in specific seeing how tit reacts to business cycles or change in policies if government.

7. ADDITIONALITY: To explore new and innovative sources for financing.

Today in the briefing countries raised valid concerns over the presentation and it was good to see that the observer organizations were also allowed to be a part of the discussion. One of the key concerns being raised today was how were the countries that were not a part of the Copenhagen accord being taken into consideration knowing full well that the advisory group was setup in the spirit if the accord.

Also there were concerns as to what legal form would the decisions of the advisory group take and whether they would be playing a political role in the process.

The group made it clear that they were on the lines of the UNFCCC convention and were taking into account the CBDR- common but differentiated responsibility principle under the Equity criteria mentioned above. As for there role is limited to being advisory , it is upto the parties to do what they want with the report. The report will be ready in September 2010.

This was largely the discussion around sources and transparency issues on climate finance, stay tuned for fast track dinner to be served late in the night.

This is a very hungry stomach signing off…..

Everyone wants to feel loved , more importantly wants acceptance and to build a mutual understanding , feel that buzz in the air, go for long walks and get lost in hugs. Look at in a trade context, which has to be a 2 way process, but like relationships can’t be defined or named along with them come the compromises which we as coutrities also need to make.

Of cheating, disappointment, getting  ‘traded – up’ and using your ‘protectionist’ measures

making compromises

When you feel like you have taken advantage of , you feel cheated and disappointed is when you start using your protectionist measures and completely block people out of your daily life. While in other cases you could just get “traded- up” for someone supposedly better than you.

Recently one has noticed various interventions by China and India , accusing the annex 1 for having clauses in their ( to be) climate legistations( for US in specific the Waxman Markey Bill)   of charging higher amount of tax or tariff on goods being produced by the countries on the basis of whether they are doing enough to reduce emissions. This is green protectionism

The Big Compromise

For India and China it will have to be a very big compromise, that of  having  higher tariff rates and for the US , the periphery problems of competition and leakage.

The basics of BCA- Border Carbon Adjustment is that it is introduced to create a level playing field between domestic producers and imported goods and it could be done three ways : by making the general product benchmarks for all countries, country specific treatment or company/ plant specific treatment. The idea is that it should reward the efficient producers and provide some incentives to producers to work towards reducing emissions.

This so called tax is called Border carbon adjustment , as in when the good is diffrentiated on the basis of actions of the counrty of where it has orginated and enters the borders of EU. This would make exports costlier for India and China where India is chiefly an export growth led country.Apart from a tax based adjustment one could also start an emissions trading scheme for allowances. It could be on imports or exports; on general products or specific products

Of defining the relationship

defining the relationship

As far as the international standardization is concerned, the ISO is working on it to standardize carbon foot printing (ISO 14067)for a whole product cycle but this is only taking into account the raw material and manufacturing stages and not the sale and resail stages. Since the inspection at the border cannot take place hence the company trades in certificate of emissions which is standardised by the above methodology. The high costs if verification and certification would be a challenge over and above setting up the massive infrastructural and institutional support.

And like in the WTO their is special and prefrential treatment similarly here the US proposes to use country differentiation in trade in basis of the pledges of countries to the Copenhagen Accord.

A study conducted to see the influence of BCA over imports in EU across 164 sectors found that 85% of imports were sensitive to the BCA, and the countries that could be worse effected by this would be the tin and article industry of Bolivia, Iron and steel industry of Argentina and soap industry of China among others. Hence its highly unlikely that EU would impose the BCA in LDCs. The border adjustment will vary accordingly to GHG intensity and trade intensity might demand for them and the adjustment would be targeted for specific sectors.

Why you can’t handle it…

But there are several bottlenecks in trade for developing nations pertaining to the high transaction costs , higher levels of corruption, lack of trust between the public and private sector , requirment of meeting the international standards, rent seeking and high administrative costs which will it make it difficult to make the trade transaction smooth.

What goes around will come around eventually

Life is not fair but it surely is a leveller. No matter what you do what goes around will come around. Maybe after 20 years when India and China will be the hub of green technology, US and EU will have to pay a very dear price for it.Moreover, the US economy will have to fill the gaps created by the policy dissonance with becoming export oriented otherwise the leakages and competition will lead to a downfall in the business activity at home and increase consumption along with the costs of fuel etc.

Only time will tell how the mechanisms will change the global scenario and the relationship among countries and whether it was the “right thing to do”.This is just an attempt at understanding the basics, and to leave the reader with a barrier free crash course to green protectionism and help them to take a stance and decide.

Your choices will reflect your character so make them wisely. Not that the US hasn’t already shown it’s true colours by not signing the kyoto but BCA will make life worse for a lot of Americans eventually.

His sparkling eyes and great temperament and outlook towards civil society is appreciated and I hope this continues and the – becoming negotiator part of him doesn’t defeat that. We warmly welcome him and hope that he continues and builds relationships with the civil society the way he has.

Having been associated as a senior scientist from The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune . He has set up the new climate change research center with the groundbreaking paper on ENSO MODOKI (pseudo ENSO) of which you can learn from The ” Nature” 2009 issue

Climate change: The El Niño with a difference

Karumuri Ashok¹ & Toshio Yamagata²

Patterns of sea-surface warming and cooling in the tropical Pacific seem to be changing, as do the associated atmospheric effects. Increased global warming is implicated in these shifts in El Niño phenomena.

Through the El Niño events^{1, 2} that occur every 3–8 years or so, the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere has global effects on climate — sometimes with devastating effects, for example on agriculture in India. El Niños are defined by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, and are associated with anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns known as the Southern Oscillation.

El nino

a, An El Niño event is produced when the easterly winds weaken; sometimes, in the west, westerlies prevail. This condition is categorized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east of the ocean, and is associated with alterations in the thermocline and in the atmospheric circulation that make the east wetter and the west drier. b, An El Niño Modoki event is an anomalous condition of a distinctly different kind. The warmest SSTs occur in the central Pacific, flanked by colder waters to the east and west, and are associated with distinct patterns of atmospheric convection. c, d, The opposite (La Niña) phases of the El Niño and El Niño Modoki respectively. Yeh et al.³ argue that the increasing frequency of the Modoki condition is due to anthropogenic warming, and that these events in the central Pacific will occur more frequently if global warming increases.

Here at the UNFCCC  he looks into Climate prediction and modelling and those technical issues and jargon which are beyond normal people’s scope to comprehend. At bonn, he looks into SBSTA and more specifically systematic observations and methodologies .

When asked whether he incorporates saving the environment in real life he felt that he has always tried to save water drive less  and tries to take public transport.

Before writing that ground breaking paper , he completed his masters in science ,Mtech and PHd(PHEW…!)  from Andhara University in Vishakapatnam on the east coast of India. Being close to the Bay of Bengal which is one  of his main driving forces to work on this area. The Cyclone of 1977  whose destruction left a deep impression on him moved him to work and contribute in his small way to study the problem and give a solution.

He is married with 2 children, the elder daughter is 6 years old and younger one 2 yrs old.

When I asked him whether as a scientist he thought climate change is happening or not , all we could get out of him was that personally as a scientist he could acknowledge that climate variability is taking place. With such carefully worded statements he is on the way of becoming a future negotiator. We wish him all the best and welcome to the really funny,big political family of UNFCCC!

There was so much janta ( public) on the road, but that didnt put pressure on the wreckless drivers at Sal Maritim.

After the first session it was certain , that the roads were circular and we were going round and round.. It was a like a never ending traffic jam on a busy delhi road

The new moves of the traffic policemen

By the time we reached the 10th speaker everyone had memorised the first line. We congratulate the chair on the draft text that has been circulated. and of course the send off message —– we will offer our full support and constructive input to make the text better. This protocol was taxing to the ears of all those who were just on the verge of catching a wink.

Big and pushy

The Big truck drivers

They are the ones who are always on the road blocking many and sometimes there accidents and events could completely force all the cars to take a detour , much like what the Umbrella Group has been so efficient to doing. THe USA mentioned in its intervention today, “the world is not standing still ” and that they did not see the draft text reflect much of the copenhagen accord… wait did some one say accord? Pershing also mentioned that the fact that there was not agreement in Copenhagen was a certain type of balance. He went out to argue about how the copenhagen accord had more of standing than the LCA text. “no one has ever signed on to LCA text, doesnt reflect an agreement, has no standing”. Everyone turned around and whole crowds gave him the dirts on the road….

What is with these trucks?, why do they think the  copenhagen accord was the first step? … and more importantly first step towards what? another traffic jam? If they want as a “vision of decision” they better learn to not drive his rash and see it to it that they are more ambitious.

The irritating scooters

Scooter

They come from nowhere … create all the noise they possibly can and also cause a lot of accidents on the road.. we could say these could be the OECD. They speak out of no bargaining power, are rash and know the only way they would get ahead would be when they scream at all the other drivers and express road rage.

These people neither have the size( bargaining power) for getting ahead in the traffic , neither do they have special lanes that could fast forwrad them.

The buses

They cater to the masses and agree efficient and get adequate capacity and support with special lanes and rapid transfer lanes for themselves. They know what everyone is talking about and are inclusive , with loads of new ideas and different people stepping in. Although most of them face the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard which is characteristic of public provision good. Here the money allocated to the LDCs as a part of the adaptation money is not reaching them in time and also they find it challenging to meet the criteria to become eligible to receive funding. while some believe that it is good to have differentiation among the vulnerable countries for receiving the finance , others think they should get equal amounts.

The people's bus

The smaller SUVs

THe largest lobby group in the UNFCCC with over 100 countries the group of 77 and china form the larger part of the traffic which chimes in with each other. They mostly all drive with the same speed but we have heard that there might be slight differences between the african countries and advanced developing world like China and India.

The rickshaws

People driven they work the hardest and leaving a positive handprint with regards to their energy usage they are the champions and definitely defining the traffic jams on the delhi light. They have the unsaid right to jump lights and take over the road.  It was surprising that there was no mention of the People’s conference reflected in the new chairs text, this is certainly disappointing since the conference outcomes are one of the most inclusive any UNFCCC conference has ever seen.

On the road to COP16

We need a stronger visionary sort of a police man and maybe we also want to have stricter enforcement of law ( the convention )to have the big trucks publicly acknowledge the big gigatone gap  and also see to it to instill some civic sense into the general people. Hoping for smoother traffic on the road ahead.

At Frankfurt I find him trying to track his luggage which he had checked in all the way till Bonn and caught the train just in the nick of time for Bonn. When you tried to make conversation about Kyoto or LCA he said, ” I don’t really know much policy, I’m more into the science” as he is working with the WMO – World Meteorological Organization.

It will be interesting to meet the new negotiating team although today I saw some of the old ones lurking around- R K Sethi and Mr Mauskar from the Ministry of environment and forests. Only time will tell how the new negotiating team will handle things “differently” from the previous one.

Sensing from the tense situation back home where Minister Jai Ram Ramesh has a thick cloud of controversy surrounding him and also without our chief negotiator Vijai Sharma and Rashmi Ranjan Sir , looks like India will be keeping a low profile.

The whole day , the only inspiration has been looking forward to the great reception and farewell to Yvo de Boer in the evening.

Hope for more exciting days…..

While the govt is busy with appraisals of the budget and fighting the naxalites and the extradiction of Headley, the public is busy with IPL – the big cricket league. I do somewhat agree that we have better things to worry about in our country but that doesn’t mean that we don’t even send a complete team to the UNFCCC negotiations. This April , the meetings are attended by the following:

Vijay Sharma- MOEF ,- a proposed (apparently ) contender for the executive secretary
Jayant Moreshver Mauskar MOEF0
Rajiva Misra MOEA
Rajani Ranjan Rashmi MOEF
Amit Agrawal PMO
Ashok Kumar Embassy
VRS Rawat ICFRE

Where is my lead negotiator? Shyam Saran?

Shyam Sir has a thick cloud of controversy surrounding him because apparently he wanted to be promoted to the position of National Security Advisor to the Government of India but due to his clashes with Jai Ram Ramesh and the nuclear deal he once negotiated, going in for discussion in the parliament the NSA slot seems difficult. He has officially resigned as the special climate envoy.

Nonetheless , it was hard tracking you sir and probably I might need to go the Gym considering I won’t be running around a while to find you.

Where is the rest of the negotiating team?
R K Sethi ?
Dr Ghosh?
Ambassador Dasgupta?

Has the knowledge center of the Indian Delegation been bombed since Copenhagen for being a little more flexible than usual? Has Jai Ram Ramesh asserted himself to be the lead on the climate negotiations?
I will miss my favorite negotiators who I respect wholeheartedly for their knowledge and negotiating skills. I hope the new negotiating team would be able to live upto even half what these men in black were.
Of course our environment minister must have wanted to attend this meeting but he’s doing a swell job with PR and getting into any scandal and controversy that he possibly can , ranging from BT Brinjal to Environmental clearances for projects and tussles with other ministries.

But as far as the Copenhagen accord , there is no constructive debate going on , neither in the Parliament and neither in classrooms. All what is , is UNFCCC butchering and government bashing on one side and big publicity events like earth hour which was in the news because Chief Minister Shiela Dikshit left Big star Abhishek Bacchan’s video message out at the event.( can you believe that?)

Is all of this really worth it? 1000’s of us sobbing over a deal which wasn’t in our hands?

Is it really worth for leaders to fly on fancy jets , live in fancier hotels , waste some more carbon and still take 15 long years for a decision?

Is it worth it? and what value are you adding to this process?

Maybe we all play our parts in a small way, being an environmentalist shouldn’t only be about going living in a disaster prone area but using what you do best and linking it to saving the environment , even if it be jewellery making. After all you could always be a eco- friendly waste and recycled jewellery maker?

Its a new beginning , a new life and a whole new whole new field to discover…..

I hope what once was greener grass on the other side , won’t even be grass…. ,
and people realise that
there is NO other side…
There is only ONE side

The side of Solution.

Stop goofing around and get hold of our own act. DO your own bit. Individually , as a community and most importantly as your country.

will there be any grass left on the other side?

This might be useful to understand what dynamics are playing out in the contact group on numbers from annex 1