Is all fair in love and trade?
Posted on 04. Jun, 2010 by Leela Raina in India | View Comments
Feeling Special
Everyone wants to feel loved , more importantly wants acceptance and to build a mutual understanding , feel that buzz in the air, go for long walks and get lost in hugs. Look at in a trade context, which has to be a 2 way process, but like relationships can’t be defined or named along with them come the compromises which we as coutrities also need to make.
Of cheating, disappointment, getting ‘traded – up’ and using your ‘protectionist’ measures
making compromises
When you feel like you have taken advantage of , you feel cheated and disappointed is when you start using your protectionist measures and completely block people out of your daily life. While in other cases you could just get “traded- up” for someone supposedly better than you.
Recently one has noticed various interventions by China and India , accusing the annex 1 for having clauses in their ( to be) climate legistations( for US in specific the Waxman Markey Bill) of charging higher amount of tax or tariff on goods being produced by the countries on the basis of whether they are doing enough to reduce emissions. This is green protectionism
The Big Compromise
For India and China it will have to be a very big compromise, that of having higher tariff rates and for the US , the periphery problems of competition and leakage.
The basics of BCA- Border Carbon Adjustment is that it is introduced to create a level playing field between domestic producers and imported goods and it could be done three ways : by making the general product benchmarks for all countries, country specific treatment or company/ plant specific treatment. The idea is that it should reward the efficient producers and provide some incentives to producers to work towards reducing emissions.
This so called tax is called Border carbon adjustment , as in when the good is diffrentiated on the basis of actions of the counrty of where it has orginated and enters the borders of EU. This would make exports costlier for India and China where India is chiefly an export growth led country.Apart from a tax based adjustment one could also start an emissions trading scheme for allowances. It could be on imports or exports; on general products or specific products
Of defining the relationship
defining the relationship
As far as the international standardization is concerned, the ISO is working on it to standardize carbon foot printing (ISO 14067)for a whole product cycle but this is only taking into account the raw material and manufacturing stages and not the sale and resail stages. Since the inspection at the border cannot take place hence the company trades in certificate of emissions which is standardised by the above methodology. The high costs if verification and certification would be a challenge over and above setting up the massive infrastructural and institutional support.
And like in the WTO their is special and prefrential treatment similarly here the US proposes to use country differentiation in trade in basis of the pledges of countries to the Copenhagen Accord.
A study conducted to see the influence of BCA over imports in EU across 164 sectors found that 85% of imports were sensitive to the BCA, and the countries that could be worse effected by this would be the tin and article industry of Bolivia, Iron and steel industry of Argentina and soap industry of China among others. Hence its highly unlikely that EU would impose the BCA in LDCs. The border adjustment will vary accordingly to GHG intensity and trade intensity might demand for them and the adjustment would be targeted for specific sectors.
Why you can’t handle it…
But there are several bottlenecks in trade for developing nations pertaining to the high transaction costs , higher levels of corruption, lack of trust between the public and private sector , requirment of meeting the international standards, rent seeking and high administrative costs which will it make it difficult to make the trade transaction smooth.
What goes around will come around eventually
Life is not fair but it surely is a leveller. No matter what you do what goes around will come around. Maybe after 20 years when India and China will be the hub of green technology, US and EU will have to pay a very dear price for it.Moreover, the US economy will have to fill the gaps created by the policy dissonance with becoming export oriented otherwise the leakages and competition will lead to a downfall in the business activity at home and increase consumption along with the costs of fuel etc.
Only time will tell how the mechanisms will change the global scenario and the relationship among countries and whether it was the “right thing to do”.This is just an attempt at understanding the basics, and to leave the reader with a barrier free crash course to green protectionism and help them to take a stance and decide.
Your choices will reflect your character so make them wisely. Not that the US hasn’t already shown it’s true colours by not signing the kyoto but BCA will make life worse for a lot of Americans eventually.
Of learning and observing….
Posted on 03. Jun, 2010 by Leela Raina in India | View Comments
They say that you can never be too old to learn and there is no one else who can live up to this statement like Dr Karumuri Ashok who is the new Scientist in the Indian Delegation. He is here to learn , observe and most importantly to make that transition from a “scientist” to a “negotiator”.
His sparkling eyes and great temperament and outlook towards civil society is appreciated and I hope this continues and the – becoming negotiator part of him doesn’t defeat that. We warmly welcome him and hope that he continues and builds relationships with the civil society the way he has.
Having been associated as a senior scientist from The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune . He has set up the new climate change research center with the groundbreaking paper on ENSO MODOKI (pseudo ENSO) of which you can learn from The ” Nature” 2009 issue
Climate change: The El Niño with a difference
Karumuri Ashok1 & Toshio Yamagata2
Patterns of sea-surface warming and cooling in the tropical Pacific seem to be changing, as do the associated atmospheric effects. Increased global warming is implicated in these shifts in El Niño phenomena.
Through the El Niño events1, 2 that occur every 3–8 years or so, the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere has global effects on climate — sometimes with devastating effects, for example on agriculture in India. El Niños are defined by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, and are associated with anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns known as the Southern Oscillation.
El nino
a, An El Niño event is produced when the easterly winds weaken; sometimes, in the west, westerlies prevail. This condition is categorized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east of the ocean, and is associated with alterations in the thermocline and in the atmospheric circulation that make the east wetter and the west drier. b, An El Niño Modoki event is an anomalous condition of a distinctly different kind. The warmest SSTs occur in the central Pacific, flanked by colder waters to the east and west, and are associated with distinct patterns of atmospheric convection. c, d, The opposite (La Niña) phases of the El Niño and El Niño Modoki respectively. Yeh et al.3 argue that the increasing frequency of the Modoki condition is due to anthropogenic warming, and that these events in the central Pacific will occur more frequently if global warming increases.
Here at the UNFCCC he looks into Climate prediction and modelling and those technical issues and jargon which are beyond normal people’s scope to comprehend. At bonn, he looks into SBSTA and more specifically systematic observations and methodologies .
When asked whether he incorporates saving the environment in real life he felt that he has always tried to save water drive less and tries to take public transport.
Before writing that ground breaking paper , he completed his masters in science ,Mtech and PHd(PHEW…!) from Andhara University in Vishakapatnam on the east coast of India. Being close to the Bay of Bengal which is one of his main driving forces to work on this area. The Cyclone of 1977 whose destruction left a deep impression on him moved him to work and contribute in his small way to study the problem and give a solution.
He is married with 2 children, the elder daughter is 6 years old and younger one 2 yrs old.
When I asked him whether as a scientist he thought climate change is happening or not , all we could get out of him was that personally as a scientist he could acknowledge that climate variability is taking place. With such carefully worded statements he is on the way of becoming a future negotiator. We wish him all the best and welcome to the really funny,big political family of UNFCCC!
Traffic Jam
Posted on 02. Jun, 2010 by Leela Raina in India | View Comments
The second day of the negotiations at Bonn saw the opening of the Adhoc working groups on Kyoto Protocol and Long Term Cooperative Action. It was interesting to see that Sal Maritim where the LCA was convening full with the hustle and bustle of people. State of affairs were so alarming that forget finding a plug point one could hardly even find a place to sit.
There was so much janta ( public) on the road, but that didnt put pressure on the wreckless drivers at Sal Maritim.
After the first session it was certain , that the roads were circular and we were going round and round.. It was a like a never ending traffic jam on a busy delhi road
The new moves of the traffic policemen
By the time we reached the 10th speaker everyone had memorised the first line. We congratulate the chair on the draft text that has been circulated. and of course the send off message —– we will offer our full support and constructive input to make the text better. This protocol was taxing to the ears of all those who were just on the verge of catching a wink.
Big and pushy
The Big truck drivers
They are the ones who are always on the road blocking many and sometimes there accidents and events could completely force all the cars to take a detour , much like what the Umbrella Group has been so efficient to doing. THe USA mentioned in its intervention today, “the world is not standing still ” and that they did not see the draft text reflect much of the copenhagen accord… wait did some one say accord? Pershing also mentioned that the fact that there was not agreement in Copenhagen was a certain type of balance. He went out to argue about how the copenhagen accord had more of standing than the LCA text. “no one has ever signed on to LCA text, doesnt reflect an agreement, has no standing”. Everyone turned around and whole crowds gave him the dirts on the road….
What is with these trucks?, why do they think the copenhagen accord was the first step? … and more importantly first step towards what? another traffic jam? If they want as a “vision of decision” they better learn to not drive his rash and see it to it that they are more ambitious.
The irritating scooters
Scooter
They come from nowhere … create all the noise they possibly can and also cause a lot of accidents on the road.. we could say these could be the OECD. They speak out of no bargaining power, are rash and know the only way they would get ahead would be when they scream at all the other drivers and express road rage.
These people neither have the size( bargaining power) for getting ahead in the traffic , neither do they have special lanes that could fast forwrad them.
The buses
They cater to the masses and agree efficient and get adequate capacity and support with special lanes and rapid transfer lanes for themselves. They know what everyone is talking about and are inclusive , with loads of new ideas and different people stepping in. Although most of them face the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard which is characteristic of public provision good. Here the money allocated to the LDCs as a part of the adaptation money is not reaching them in time and also they find it challenging to meet the criteria to become eligible to receive funding. while some believe that it is good to have differentiation among the vulnerable countries for receiving the finance , others think they should get equal amounts.
The people's bus
The smaller SUVs
THe largest lobby group in the UNFCCC with over 100 countries the group of 77 and china form the larger part of the traffic which chimes in with each other. They mostly all drive with the same speed but we have heard that there might be slight differences between the african countries and advanced developing world like China and India.
The rickshaws
People driven they work the hardest and leaving a positive handprint with regards to their energy usage they are the champions and definitely defining the traffic jams on the delhi light. They have the unsaid right to jump lights and take over the road. It was surprising that there was no mention of the People’s conference reflected in the new chairs text, this is certainly disappointing since the conference outcomes are one of the most inclusive any UNFCCC conference has ever seen.
On the road to COP16
We need a stronger visionary sort of a police man and maybe we also want to have stricter enforcement of law ( the convention )to have the big trucks publicly acknowledge the big gigatone gap and also see to it to instill some civic sense into the general people. Hoping for smoother traffic on the road ahead.
