Stormy Night Ahead for COP 17

On this, the final day of COP 17, a more human side to the process is beginning to slip through the cracks, sometimes intentionally other times not. By now blog posts, articles, tweets and status updates across the globe will be sharing the news of protests within the Durban International Convention Center (ICC). The call to #occupy COP17 was taken up by 100s of people, and they are only representative of the very few people who managed to get accreditation to be in the ICC. Amidst their calls for climate justice now, and for a treaty before 2020, more signs of the stress and tension of two weeks of high intensity talks are beginning to show.

Today has been characterized mostly by closed off meetings where ministers and their negotiators are trying to thrash out decision on some of the major issues still unresolved at COP 17 – the Kyoto Protocol, post-Kyoto treaty and Green Climate Fund being the major ones. The COP president, Ms Maite Nkoana-Matshabane, in a somewhat ironic moment, came out of the private discussions for a press briefing to ensure everyone that the negotiations were going on in a fair and transparent manner, and that progress is being made. Meanwhile many of us out in the corridors remain in the dark as to what is being said behind the doors. The president’s voice showed signs of emotional strain and her response to a question from an Indian journalist about Durban being a failure showed clear frustration and annoyance. It’s been a tough few weeks, and emotions are running high. As I type the ministerial indaba is set to begin, once again, behind closed doors and emotions I’m sure will only run higher as the night wears on into the early and perhaps late hours of the morning.

Due to the closed nature of the meetings, rumors abound in the corridors, none really verifiable. Working out what information to trust when so many conflicting pieces emerge is an impossible task, and the only solid piece of information, that has come through is the draft texts on the Kyoto Protocol and Long-Term Cooperative Action which have been released. Their content is worrying, they propose that a post-Kyoto legal treaty is to be postponed until 2020, which as has been previously indicated, is a dangerous decision, which could push climate change to 3.5 degrees or perhaps even higher. Although they do aim to raise ambition based on the review scheduled for 2013-15 this is significantly too late. #Occupy COP 17 protesters who among other protests, chanted “2020 is too late” will most certainly agree. The Kyoto Protocol is also far from what is expected and rather than pushing for legally binding commitments much use of the word “intention” is used, which suggests that the commitments will be political ones rather than legally binding. They did mention the intention to convert these political commitments to quantified emissions limitations and reductions commitments (QELROs) but whether that intention will be achieved here in Durban remains to be seen.

We’re set for a long night, and there is much work that needs to be done. Despair has set in among many with regards to the draft proposals set forward, especially given the public outcry for a legally binding second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol as well as the need for a treaty by 2015, not 2020. As dark rainy clouds set in over Durban, negotiators and ministers will most certainly have a long night ahead, especially given the opposition that many have to 2020 such as the African Group, AOSIS, and the LDC. It’s my sincere hope that they manage to either win out or stall talks and ensure they don’t close. Whether they will, remains to be seen.