コペンハーゲン入りして3日目、こちらでは世界のNGOのミーティングやCOY(ユースのCOPにむけたミーティング)が引き続き忙しく行われていますが、今日はまた引き続き日本国内でのお話。会議にむけていろんな視点をあげていければいいなって思います。
COP合意にむけてってお話は、日本の研究者の方にもお話をうかがっていました。
国立環境研究所の亀山先生です。前回バンコクでお世話になった京都の高村先生と同じく、気候変動についてご研究をされている日本の第一人者だと思います。

平石先生と同じで、最後は、まあ集まってきた首相達が何をするか次第じゃないかといったことをおっしゃっていました。政治の部分はやはり科学とは離れて起こるものですね。
気候変動枠気味条約、京都議定書、バリアクションプランの原文をみながら、そこに示された前提「共通だが差異ある責任、先進国の責任、COPでやらなきゃいけないと決められていることは」などを教えていただきました。鶴岡先生にも教えていただきましたが、公的文書であるかぎり、そこに現れる一語一語がすごい大切で、一語のためにすごく長い時間を費やすこともあれば、その一語によってこの数十年の交渉の前提が決まったりします。
そして、やはり注目はバリアクションプランで示された、この会議で必要とされる成果です。
“in order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a decision at its fifteenth session – Decision- /CP.13 Bali Action Plan”
この一節がCOP15で成果をださなければいけないということを決めています。ただ、みてわかるとおり“agreed outcome”としか言っていません。
（＃　鶴岡先生からこれを決定したときの徹夜で行われた非公式会議のお話をうかがったりもしました。この1語を決めることがどれだけ大変で、調整を要したかとか。今後を規定する文書を決めるのってすごいですね。）

そして、政治合意とは何が起こりうるのか。一番悲しいのが、各国首相の美しいスピーチのみ、次の期間を定めるような合意、合意しうる点だけは合意をして次につなげる形、次の会議(COP-bis)と期間を決める、何かが起こり法的合意が達成される！？などなど、まだいろんな可能性があるというか、測りかねるというか、まだまだ期待をおくスペースはあるのかななんて思います。

と、ほとんどお話を聞いて私が感じたことになってしまいましたが、こんな風に現地でもいろんな方にお話をきいて、自分なりにその背景についても考えて、現地の空気とか世界の人の意見とかも聞いて、伝えていきたいなと意気込んでいるところです。

で、亀山先生とは、最後は電車で途中までご一緒しながらいろいろお話をきけました。研究ってなんだろうとか私自身の今後についてまでアドバイスをいただき、私もほんといろいろがんばらないとです（＞＿＜）

Famous figure from IPCC report

I’m writing this from the Conference of Youth (COY), and there are MANY young people here with me from around the world. It’s so energetic and hopeful today.

I’ve coordinated the special seminar with other students in my university inviting Mr. Taka Hiraishi, one of IPCC Bureau members last month. I reported this summery. It’s bit late, but still useful to know.
The theme of this seminar was ”IPCC Reports and International Climate Change Negotiations”. Here are the highlights below:

Mr. Taka Hiraishi was part of the team honored with a Nobel Peace prize in 2007 (and was the only Japanese representative  attending the ceremony) “for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change”.

What is Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)? The IPCC was established by UNEP and WMO in 1988. Members are Governments are more than 190. And their famous Reports have been prepared by a few thousands author and more than 10,000 other contributors who do like review or comment. Secretariat and Technical Suport Units are also consisting of this. Working Group-1 is “science”, WG2 is “Impacts and Adaptation”, WG3 is “Mitigation”. The report is divided to these 3 parts.

For making the reports, there are a number of writing and reviewing steps. The most recent completed assessment is the famous Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). I just skip this explanation, please check original one by yourself. It’s is so useful to understand the Climate Change. This includes many famous figures.
You can get original one from here http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm

-IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (NGGIP)
“IPPC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories” is available from here .
They also provide LULUCF Good Practice Guidance 2003 .

-International Climate Change Negotiations
This include in fundamental information about countries or group positions. The history and what is decided in UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and Bali Action Plan. And he mentioned IPCC WG-III Chapt.13. Page 776 contributed to BAP.

-Towards Copenhagen

He talked about what issues are on –going in AWGs and some his views.

After the lecture, we asked him many things, like tasks of IPCC, CDM, his view of COP, next report and so on. For example, IPCC members are attending all meetings in order to answer the question about their report immediately. IPCC shows the scientific result only, so they can’t recommend something and have position.
After that, I feel now science should explain and report back to our real world and we should try to understand it more properly without checking just one sentence or rumor. I really have to do this as one of baby scientists.
One thing I feel interesting about COP is. If Obama is crazy, something is decided in Copenhagen.
We don’t know what will happen in Copenhagen, but we hope make good steps to our happily future. Welcome to be crazy and be climate hero now, Word leaders! I believe history judge “It was not crazy but just right” after few decades when all people are aware of the importance of environment.

I have some stories from my first few days of negotiations to share with you to give you a sense of the exciting and frustrating environment that is UN climate negotiations.

Main plenary hall..... empty

Africa walks out! (then back in)
So…. on the first day, just as the talks around the Kyoto Protocol began, the African group ‘walked out’ because of a lack of commitment around mitigation targets. This put a pause to the negotiations.
So, there I was, ready for some firm negotiating action, and the talks are stopped before they get underway.
One of five days down.

Now, don’t get me wrong I don’t think the African group were out of line, but it was a surprise. One senior policy person said:
“It was a really surprising move that rattled many countries”
After a day (and long evening) of private negotiations, the Kyoto Protocol negotiation stream recommenced. A deal was struck! Developed nations promised to reprioritise making 2020 mitigation commitments.
Without real action, a threat of another walkout remains.

The adaptation stream…. sigh
It’s 3pm on the first day of negotiations, and like the little keen bean I am, I make my way to the first adaptation session (a personal interest of mine, and key point of the negotiations). So… there I am, myself and one other person off in the other side of the huge hall in silence (it was a little awkward).

Slowly over the next 20 minutes people slowly moved into the hall…. I thought these negotiations were on a tight schedule? I thought we desperately needed to cut the negotiation text down so we could reach an agreement at Copenhagen? Apparently not.
It got worse.

The chair then preceded to speak for 20 minutes, rather slowly, to say that the negotiating stream needs to move faster if they are going to reach an agreement by Copenhagen (no…. really?). Now while this may seem self-evident to most of you, it wasn’t to Saudi Arabia who preceded to complain for the next half hour. Believe it or not, they are unhappy that there is not more provision for them to receive compensation for lost oil revenue….. ha! Welcome to the UN, fun for all.

Australia gets asked the tough questions
Well, the highlight of my day today would’ve had to have been a session put on by Australia and the Alliance Of Small Island States (AOSIS). May I just say all credit to the Australian delegation for putting it on because it was a tough gig, considering their negotiating position.

After the Australian talk on their mitigation targets a presenter from AOSIS gave a great presentation on why we should limit warming to 1.5 Degrees Celcius. He also showed that a greenhouse gas concentration of 450ppm gives us a 60% chance of moving past 2 degrees of warming (that’s where things get bad). 450ppm is currently the ceiling that Australia is proposing.

60% is a pretty risky bet….
Well… in defence (of sorts) of Australia, lets not forget we have the highest number of poker machines per capita … IN THE WORLD (perhaps a good lesson in odds could help us change a few things?).

Ambassador reads your comments!
Today, while eating my humble lunch of patatas bravadas (deep fried potatoes… mmmm), Louise Hand, our ambassador on climate change wondered over with a print out of my last blog and your comments! Lobbying doesn’t get any easier than that. Keep it up!

Tracking for you (and in need of sleep, or more coffee)

Phil.

p.s. check out our Australian sister website A Climate For Change and Take Action.