Why 1.5 degrees are so important?

The United Nations Framework Convention was set up in 1992 with the aim of stabilizing green house gases concentration in the atmosphere .The signatories of the negotiation agreed in Article 2 that this balance ‘would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’, without a concrete specification of the level of global warming that could be dangerous for humanity.

Thereafter, in the 15th Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen, its non-binding accord stated in the very first point that the increase in global temperature should be below 2°C, mentioning later on in the document the possible future reconsideration of a 1.5°C target.

The 2°C target was defined due to two main factors. Firstly, the fact that the majority of the impacts could be avoided below this temperature increase, according to the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Secondly, the fact that IPCC mid-range scenarios showed an increase of 2°C by the end of the century.

However, there is growing evidence proving that the 2°C target may not be enough, especially when taking into account different parameters such as radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity or carbon cycle feedbacks, thus arguing for a target with lower temperature increase.

A two degrees hotter world does not great. Especially for small islands and countries in the Pacific. A temperature rise of 2 degrees would lead to a great loss of agriculture productivity, increase the intensity of typhoons by 10-20%, increased frequency of El Niño events and sea level rise up to a meter.

Having said that, it is no surprise that AILAC, Marshall Islands, AOSIS and other countries are pushing for reference on 1.5 degrees warming instead of 2 in the negotiating text of this COP20. The survival of their economy, their country and their people depends on that. Ecosystems cannot be replaced. Nor countries and their culture. Therefore we want to encourage other parties to increase their ambition not to reach this threshold.