Burning remaining fossil fuels could cause 60-meter sea-level rise

Burning all of the world’s available fossil-fuels would result in the complete melting of the Antarctic ice sheet, according to new study to be published in Science Advances. The new research demonstrates that the planet’s remaining fossil fuel resources would be sufficient to melt nearly all of Antarctica if burned, leading to a 50- or 60-meter (160- to 200-foot) rise in sea level.

According to lead author Ricarda Winkelmann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research:

“If we were to burn all attainable fossil fuel resources, this would eliminate the Antarctic ice sheet and cause long-term global sea-level rise unprecedented in human history.”

This is the first study to model the effects of unrestrained fossil-fuel burning on the entirety of the Antarctic ice sheet. The research found that the West Antarctic ice sheet becomes unstable if carbon emissions continue at current levels for 60 to 80 years, representing only 6 to 8 percent of the 10,000 billion tons of carbon that could be released if we use all accessible fossil fuels. According to c0-author Ken Cadiera:

“Our findings show that if we do not want to melt Antarctica, we can’t keep taking fossil fuel carbon out of the ground and just dumping it into the atmosphere as CO2 like we’ve been doing. If we don’t stop dumping our waste CO2 into the sky, land that is now home to more than a billion people will one day be underwater.”

Press releases from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Carnegie Institution for Science have more from the authors. The New York Times’s Andy Revkin has a video chat with the authors over at his Dot Earth blog. The paper also covered the story here. RTCC, The Independent, The Guardian, Reuters and TIME all have more on the new study. You can also read Carbon Brief’s write up.