What Failure in Durban means for Developing Countries?

We came together in Copenhagen with high hopes and expectations for a legal binding treaty and failed miserably. We then met in Cancun and nothing major came out of that meeting as well. This year we are in Durban for the seventeenth session of the UN Climate Change negotiations with a changed atmosphere and a sense of urgency. But will a deal be struck this year? I think instead of wasting our time and energies finding the answer to this question, it would be more useful if we try to look into what implications any success or failure in Durban have for the countries and global development.

Stories coming out of developing countries present a gloomy picture of their future. For instance, in just two years Pakistan has experienced torrential rainfall and floods that have caused great havoc and loss. Similar events have occurred in Thailand, Bangladesh, and Viet Nam. Droughts and water issues have become rampant in Africa for many years now. The bad news is that such anomalies in weather patterns are expected to get worse due to climate change as predicted by the new IPCC report that came out earlier this month. This means that countries that are vulnerable to climate change will experience extreme weather conditions more frequently and with increased intensity. The unfortunate reality for developing countries is that climate change poses great challenges for them and their development. But it is not just about economic progress and advancement. It’s about survival and humanity. Today, reading the news that 6 people died in Durban due to the rainfall last night should be an alarming call for all the negotiators here that they need to take action soon, and now!

Clearly, no one is happy with the way things are going in these negotiations. There’s a growing frustration and anger about the lack of progress being made in the climate negotiations, with some people even calling to Occupy Durban until something substantial does not come out of COP17. While it would be interesting to see the impact of such a movement here, it’s time for us to get serious in the negotiations.

Should Developing Countries Boycott Talks?

Up till now, we don’t see any success coming out of COPs except for statements and promises. But this does not mean that UNFCCC can’t deliver any solution to climate change. In fact, if developing countries boycott talks, it would allow developed countries to sit back and continue destroying our planet. What we need is a balanced approach based on the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities. Developed countries cannot pressurize developing countries to mitigate and make emission cuts, without agreeing to binding commitments themselves. If developing countries boycott talks, the chance to make developed countries agree to a legal binding agreement will be lost.

Stumbling Blocks for Finance

How successful will be Durban with respect to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which promises to mobilize $100bn per year for climate change adaptation and mitigation starting from 2020, is a matter of much debate and speculation. With the global economic recession still looming many developed nations, finance won’t be an easy issue to tackle here in Durban. Nonetheless, it is important to understand that finance is critical for developing and underdeveloped countries to adapt to climate change impacts and risks. Durban will discuss how the GCF will be filled with money and how this money will be channelized to countries that need it the most.

Future of Kyoto Protocol

Durban is also a turning point for the fate of the Kyoto Protocol. Being the only legal document in place that aims to cut carbon globally, Kyoto is a necessary condition of any agreement made in Durban for the developing countries.

A global agreement on climate change is not a luxury; rather it’s a necessary condition for developing countries. Although progress is incremental in UN multilateral talks, developing countries should work together to ensure that they don’t let their future generations down by allowing developed countries to oust them in the negotiations. While further delays are expected, let’s remain hopeful that success can be achieved even in the most unpredictable circumstances. As Mandela said, “it always seems impossible until it’s done”.