“Catastrophic, But Not Serious” - The Local Predicament of Global Climate Change

An ‘apocryphal’ anecdote about the exchange of telegrams between the Austrian and German army headquarters during the middle of the First World War points to a stringent modern-day reality. As per the anecdote, the Germans sent the message, “here on our part of the front, the situation is serious, but not catastrophic”, to which the Austrians replied, “here with us, the situation is catastrophic, but not serious”. The same can be said about the way many relate to the present-day global predicament – we all know about the imminent ecological catastrophes, but we for some reason cannot take it seriously.

The evidence that climate change is happening has never been so overwhelming and clear. We are fast experiencing enormous and potentially irreversible climatic catastrophes that will only become more apparent, in absence of decisive action. In many parts of the world, including Pakistan, these catastrophes have already occurred in terms of floods, droughts, and other similar weather anomalies that have severely affected the socioeconomic landscape. To contain these issues, we need to take some drastic measures both at national and international levels. Yet, our collective experience allows us to shut ourselves off from these issues, and to disbelieve what we are well aware of.

The UN-led climate talks have proved this assertion right many times now. Last year during COP17 in Durban, South Africa, negotiators were only able to come up with how to move things forward without any guarantees of success in future. The excruciatingly long negotiating sessions were concluded with the creation of a new ad-hoc working group called Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (AWG-DPA), aimed at enabling countries to agree on a legal binding treaty, protocol, or an agreed outcome with legal force by 2015 to come in effect by 2020. While agreeing on a decade long lock-down on taking action, what negotiators failed to predict was the speed at which climate change can impact us. In just one year, for example, the Arctic has experienced record breaking melt with profound implications. Several areas in Pakistan have been declared drought-hit, making thousands of people food insecure. The list of such climate incidents can go on. However, these reports did not create the sense of urgency among negotiators to resolve their differences during the intersessionals in Bonn and Bangkok earlier this year. Instead, it was the usual affair of agreeing to disagree on any agreement, raising a thorny question – if the same would happen in Doha during COP18?

Already, commentators have noted that Doha may seem to be a less important COP. This is because the COP in 2015 will be the one in which an agreement will be reached. However, on technical grounds, Doha still matters. The two existing negotiation tracks on Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) need to be finished and final decisions made, whereas, the new Durban Platform track (AWG-DPA) needs to be built upon. In Doha, countries will try to manage these decisions in a balanced manner (or in a manner acceptable to all). Furthermore, they will try to put a more thorough meaning to the elusive idea of having “equity” in commitments. Once these principles of equity are agreed upon, the remaining tasks can be worked out for a deal in 2015.

Another crucial aspect of negotiations in Doha will be one related to the Green Climate Fund (GCF). As the Board finally decided to locate its headquarters in Songdo City, South Korea, the decision has to be endorsed by the COP to confirm the selection. The Fund, which was established last year in Durban, is aimed to channelize $100 billion annually from 2020 onwards for developing world’s adaptation and mitigation efforts. Several key details related to the Fund are to be finalized during COP18, including concrete pledges by developed countries and how private sector and civil society can be involved in its business model.

Putting all of this in Pakistan’s context, there is much at stake for Pakistan at COP18. With the newly formed Ministry of Climate Change leading the delegation at the talks and a climate policy approved by the Cabinet in hand, it will be a welcoming sight to see if Pakistan takes a stronger stance on climate change issues, both locally and globally. Already, it has formed alliance with Like Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs) ahead of COP18 to push for meaningful emission reduction targets in the talks that are in line with the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR). Yet, this happened at a time when the Prime Minister at home announced that coal will be used for power generation in the country. Pakistan also holds a seat in the GCF Board as a representative of South Asia region. Will it use this position to ensure that the Fund gets closer to the people and communities that are affected by the adverse impacts of climate change? Only time will tell. But we should all come to Doha keeping one thing in mind – that the situation is getting catastrophic, so we need to get serious.