Climate Change Impacts in MENA: Levant

 

The impact of climate change has already been felt by people and ecosystems around the world. It is considered to be the single biggest threat facing humanity. Many countries in the Levant — such as Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria — have been characterized by water scarcity, weak institutional and governmental resource management, high food import dependency and fragile economies - all coupled with increasing populations and demand (Assaf, 2008).

 

According to the recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the Arab World will be witnessing hotter and drier conditions with extensive droughts causing severe water shortages that will have dire impacts on agriculture and livelihood. Farmers in the Arab world for centuries have been addressing adaptation and resilience issues through farming, water management and environmental degradation. Global climate change is foreseen to increase the severity of climatic conditions and increase the vulnerability of resource dependent countries and communities.

Water Scarcity

Water scarcity is one of the issues expected to increase with climate change. This will adversely affect livelihoods and sectors like agriculture, which is the largest water user in the country.

The Levant region is projected to be one of the most severely impacted region in the world as per most general circulation models (GCMs) due to the expectation of severe water scarcity which will in turn impact its socio-economic development (Assaf, 2009). The Levant states’ engagement in the UNFCCC process is very vital since major regional studies produced by the Arab Development and Environment Forum forecasts alarming impacts part of which suggests that increasingly scarce water resources will be further reduced between 15-50% in all four countries.

Moreover, due to water loss and land degradation agricultural self-sufficiency is not projected especially when considering inefficient irrigation techniques used are better adapted to other areas instead of the Levant area has caused severe land degradation in the Euphrates Valley of Syria (Nasr, 2009). This in turn will result and influence the whole issue of food security which results in poverty causing much larger consequences in the region especially with the current political instability and conflict in the area — noting that Syria depends on sources outside of its borders for 80% of its water, while Jordon already consumes more than a 100% of their available water (Nasr, 2009; Tolba and Saab, 2009).

Jordon is ranked as the fourth most water insecure country in the world which has played a large part in identifying four critical sectors of the programme^‘s focus which includes water, energy, agriculture and food security in addition to waste reduction and management (HKJ, 2012). This puts both Jordon and Lebanon as the most active in the UNFCCC process in comparison to Palestine and Syria who are both in immobile positions either due to the current political crisis or for a country like Palestine it is not considered a decision-maker.

Agriculture

Increase in temperatures and decrease in rainfall also characterizes the main climatic changes facing countries such as Lebanon. Similarly to other Levant agrarian societies, the agricultural sector will be hardly hit by these changes. In addition, a reduced amount of agricultural land will be available due to desertification and urban sprawling. This means that agriculture will be affected and the price of vegetables, fruits, and other agricultural products will rise as well, bringing about a further negative effect on marginalized communities.

Sea Level Rise

An additional factor is the expected rise in sea level that could further contaminate the nearby aquifers such as the coastal aquifer of Gaza that should provide water to 1.5 million Palestinians. The annual decrease in precipitation has led to less freshwater availability for surface or ground water.

It is also projected that a one meter rise in 50 years will cause salt intrusions in Iraq well into the north beyond Basra and intrude into water aquifers in Lebanon, as far as downtown Beirut and Dbayyeh areas (Nasr, 2009).

Political Vulnerability

In Palestine due to the political realities of the continuous Israeli situation, it undermines in many cases the conditions necessary for the operation and implementation of sound and sustainable mitigation and adaptation plans. With stringent control on natural resources use and management, the Palestinian authority lacks the capacity today to enforce regulations and mechanisms to ensure the integration of climate change impacts into development planning in the country. This ultimately increases the vulnerability of governmental and nongovernmental institutions and further intensifies the vulnerability and exposure of communities to the effects of climate change (UNDP,2010).

Nevertheless, climate change adaptation planning is supported by governmental institutions like the Ministry of Environmental Affairs, Ministry of Agriculture and the Water Authority in addition to environmental NGOs and engaged stakeholders. Similar to Jordan, Palestine climate projections clearly state that water shortages will increase, increasing the water asymmetry already existing due to the unequal use of water between Israel and the West Bank and Gaza.

Economic Considerations

In the Levant region, the
 water sector currently undergoes several environmental stresses resulting from different socio- economic activities and practices, including agriculture, energy, and transport. The potential impacts of climate change on the coastal zone include losses in coastal and marine economic activities such as tourism, agriculture, fisheries, transportation and other essential services. Coastal communities relying on ecosystem services, such as fishing for livelihoods will bear the impacts of increases in sea water temperature as the marine fish stock might decrease and marine biodiversity might change or decline.

In countries such as Lebanon, the coastal zone has a very high population density estimated at around 594 inhabitants per km² and is characterized by a concentration of Lebanon’s main economic activity. In fact, the largest Lebanese cities (Beirut, Saida, Tripoli, Tyre) are located along the coast, and contribute to more than 74% of Lebanon’s GDP through commercial and financial activities, large industrial zones, important agricultural lands as well as fishing and tourism (UNEP- MAP).

In addition to organizational and technical constrains similarly faced by other Levant countries, Palestine is also experiencing political constrains due to the Israeli situation. The shared trans boundary groundwater is unequally distributed that Israel uses around 80% of it.

Research

Due to economic growth and increasing population, energy demand is expected to rise by at least 50 percent in some countries over the next 20 years. The provision of reliable energy supply at reasonable cost is thus a crucial element of economic reform and sustainable development. Transportation sector is of crucial importance for the regions further economic development. In general terms, lack of and access to data are the main barriers that proved to be the most hindering. The lack of statistics particularly affects the assessment of GHG emissions and economic development scenarios. In turn, governments have blamed the weak economic base for the inability to support research.

The absence of scientific assessments and research in terms of assessing e.g. economic impacts of climate change, the ecological impacts of global warming and the degree of resilience of the different systems are hindering the prioritization of adaptation strategies in the decision-making process.