Weekly ‘Fresh Air Brief': 9 Aug 2014

Choose your future - looking ahead at our planet’s possible emissions pathways
WRI published a new infographic, based on IPCC data, depicting the likely consequences of various emissions pathways, ranging from a low-carbon future to a fossil fuel-intensive one.

While none of the scenarios paint a pretty picture of the future, researchers from MIT are even less optimistic. They published analysis predicting the outcome of the 2015 climate deal, based largely on how far we’ve come thus far (and admittedly a lot of guessing on their part). The Carbon Brief aptly described the study’s results as “the level of ambition that might be possible is probably not enough to limit global warming to no more than 2º.” While the study is hardly definitive, it is another warning illustrating the need for governments to boosts in climate action well beyond what they are already doing.

• Climate negotiators and environment ministers from BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) met in Dehli Thursday in an effort to align their climate change strategies. Official communications from the meeting failed to show any significant departure from the group’s positions in previous years.
• African climate negotiators attending the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington said leadership from the US is critical to finalizing a 2015 climate agreement. RTCC and Climate Wire dig into some of the grist from other leaders in attendance. At that meeting, the World Bank pledged $5 billion to support energy projects in six African countries.
• Nitin Sethi and Ed King have details on an emerging climate and energy pact between India and the US.
• And as an outcome of last week’s Pacific Island Forum, 16 Pacific island nations say they will push for an agreement on ocean conservation at UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s climate summit in September.

World’s leading PR firms ditch climate denial campaigns
Our Tree Alerts team dug into the latest development in the PR world: Edelman, the world’s largest independently owned PR firm, has formally declared it will not take on campaigns that deny global warming, joining a host of similar firms to ditch climate deniers. In a survey, conducted by the Guardian and the Climate Investigations Center (CIC) and released earlier this week, a number of the top global PR firms said they would not take clients who deny man-made climate change or seek to block regulations on carbon pollution. These companies include Waggener Edstrom Worldwide, Finn Partners, and WPP, the parent company of Ogilvy and Burson-Marsteller. The move has been hailed as a “fundamental shift in the multi-billion dollar industry that has grown up around the issue of global warming”. More here.

• The UN just released its plan for the much-anticipated Climate Leaders Summit, this September.
• Our Tree Alert on the France’s new national climate and energy plan describe the potential implications for the EU and for the prospects of the 2015 global climate deal set to be finalized in Paris.
• The Costa Rican government decreed that the moratorium on exploration and exploitation of oil on the nation’s land and marine territory is extended until 2021.
• Singapore’s government approved a new law aimed at helping the country address cross-border air pollution - namely from man-made fires in neighboring Indonesia.
• The International Monetary Fund released a new guide for policy makers on how to use tax to ensure that energy prices properly reflect their impact on the environment and sustainable economic development.
• In an interview with RTCC, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres makes the case that empowering women will be a significant factor in meeting the climate challenge.
• India’s science minister says global population levels need to be stabilised to tackle climate change and environmental degradation.
• Pakistan’s plans to expand use of coal power threaten country’s long term economic outlook according to a UN official from the region.
• Poland broke EU law by amending its fracking laws to allow shale gas excavation of up to 5,000 feet without assessing the environmental implications, triggering legal proceedings.
• In a further indication that China is taking action to deal with hazardously high levels of air pollution, Beijing plans to ban coal sales and use in its six main districts and other regions by the end of 2020. We’ve got more in our Tree Alert.

• Swedish field researchers have found vast methane plumes coming from the ocean floor; prompting a colorful warning from glaciologist Jason Box about triggers for climate change tipping points: “If even a small fraction of Arctic sea floor carbon is released to the atmosphere, we’re f’d.”
• A heat wave in central Europe is bringing record high temperatures to the Balkans, fueling some of the worst forest fires Sweden has seen in decades, and forcing reindeer in Norway to seek out relief by invading arctic road tunnels.
• In addition to the heat, some of the same Serbian and Bosnian communities ravaged by unprecedented flooding last year are being hit again.
• The Mekong river in the northeastern Thai province of Amnat Charoen has overflowed and submerged several villages, causing the worst flooding in 30 years.
• A family from Tuvalu has been granted New Zealand residency after claiming they would be affected by climate change and rising sea levels if they returned home. It is the first successful application for residency on humanitarian grounds where climate change has been a factor
• Sri Lanka is rolling out a relief program to help vulnerable farmers cope with the effects of a worsening drought, as part of a wider effort to protect people from frequent extreme weather events threatening the country’s economic gains.
• New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records.
• The habitat range of bluefin tuna appears to be shifting north as oceans warm. The tuna have been found within a hundred miles of the Arctic circle - their normal habitats are in the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Mexico.
• New research shows that climate change may play a key role in the strength and frequency of tornadoes hitting the US.
• In addition to eliminating crucial carbon sinks, deforestation in West Africa could be driving the spread of Ebola outbreaks. Climate change could make it even worse, and it’s not the only scary disease being expected to reach new populations.

• A damning new study digs into forest fire’s contributions to climate change and air pollution around the world - finding a bigger role than previously thought.
• The owner of a small US oil and gas drilling company who ordered his employees to dump tens of thousands of gallons of fracking waste into a river was just sentenced to a 28 months of prison.
• Mexico this week approved the liberalizing of the country’s energy markets; a huge boon to the oil industry eager to exploit the country’s estimated $1.3 trillion in crude oil reserves.
• Only nine of 161 Chinese cities reached the new — and stricter — air quality monitoring standards in the first half of this year, according to new data from the Ministry of Environmental Protection

• The clean tech sector in Asia received a boost this week as a new venture between three key players was launched with the aim of becoming the regions leading investor in low-carbon projects.
• International analysts Frost and Sullivan have released a report showing market revenues of nearly $60 billion in 2013 for the solar industry, a figure set to more than double to $137.02 billion by 2020.
• According to a paper published in the journal Nanotechnology, cigarette filters can be converted into powerful batteries for storing renewable energy.
• Boeing, South African Airways and SkyNRG announced a new aviation biofuel initiative this week, with the aim of creating fuel from a new type of tobacco plant. The announcement comes as a new report warns that low-cost flights are undermining country’s emissions cuts.