Curtain raiser: the six blind negotiators and the climate agreement

One third of the time has already passed between the decision in Durban to launch a new round of climate negotiations and the deadline set for this agreement. Little progress has been recorded so far on how the definition of this new package deal. The upcoming Bonn climate negotiations next week must give a new momentum to this discussion. Overview of the main questions on the table…

Sixteen months ago environmental ministers agreed to give a lifeline to the UNFCCC process by postponing to 2015 the deadline for a new international agreement. Acknowledging the challenges faced then by the international community to adopt an agreement satisfying for all, the ministers decided to conclude in 2012 some of outstanding issues and to reset the negotiations towards a comprehensive agreement to be adopted in 2015.

The past year has been mainly dedicated to defusing frustrations resulting from these Durban decisions and to finalizing discussions under the other two negotiating tracks that terminated their work in December. Thus one third of the time available before the 2015 deadline has thus passed with little progress.

Still Christina Figueres - the UN lead figure on climate change - expressed earlier this week her optimism related to the conclusion of an international agreement in 2015 but emphasized that such a positive outcome would require the intensification up of countries’ scale and speed. On the other hand, others have warned, including EU climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard, that the patience of the world in the climate process would fade if no climate agreement could be delivered by 2015.

In order to avoid the failure of the Copenhagen climate conference, negotiators have this time decided to establish milestones for the new negotiation process in order to limit the number of issues remaining on the table during the 2015 Paris climate conference. The Indian and Norwegian co-chairs of these negotiations have recently described the four years period leading to the expected agreement as divided between a conceptual phase (2012), a content-forming phase (beginning now) and a “text-forming” stage (in 2014), 2015 being dedicated mainly to polish the language of the agreement.

During the coming week, negotiators will thus be expected to precise their expectations from the content of the 2015 agreement (the “workstream 1” of the Durban Platform negotiations). Many issues remain contentious with diverging views repeating emphasized by different negotiating blocks. Which countries should accept commitments under the new agreement? Should the categories of developed and developing countries be maintained or would a more flexible approach be more useful? To what extent will the next agreement rely on a top-down science based approach as opposed to the registration of bottom-up pledges? Should the legal nature of the final agreement be discussed now already or will this discussion only begin once the substantial elements have been outlined?

In parallel to these discussions, countries will also be asked to share their vision on how to fill the existing gap between domestic actions put on the table by most states and what scientists have indicated as necessary to keep the increase of temperatures within the two degrees threshold (the negotiations “workstream 2”). To fill this gap, the international community will need to find innovative solutions to raise the level of governmental ambition with regards to climate mitigation as well as to foster initiatives undertaken by local governments and private actors. While this short-term focused discussion might attract less hype than the debates over the 2015 global deal, its success is key to safeguarding our chances to remain on track to secure a limited global warming. The 4small islands states coalition has recently warned that this second workstream is a key to their participation to the other discussion.

Other controversial issues will not be discussed during the coming week but will only be put on the table again during the more important June negotiating session, including the establishment of a mechanism to compensate developing countries for climate damages or the reform of the existing carbon markets.

Currently, country delegations seem very much in the position of the proverbial six blind men of Indostan coming across the elephant. When attempting to describe what the negotiating mandate adopted in Durban implies, negotiators give substantially different vision. Let us hope that, starting next week, negotiators will be able to broaden their own perspective and progressively recognize a larger and common vision.

The Blind Men and the Elephant
John Godfrey Saxe

It was six men of Indostan — To learning much inclined,
Who went to see the Elephant — (Though all of them were blind),
That each by observation -Might satisfy his mind.

The First approached the Elephant, — And happening to fall
Against his broad and sturdy side, — At once began to bawl:
“God bless me! but the Elephant — Is very like a WALL!”

The Second, feeling of the tusk, — Cried, “Ho, what have we here,
So very round and smooth and sharp? — To me ’tis mighty clear
This wonder of an Elephant — Is very like a SPEAR!”

The Third approached the animal, — And happening to take
The squirming trunk within his hands, — Thus boldly up and spake:
“I see,” quoth he, “the Elephant — Is very like a SNAKE!”

The Fourth reached out an eager hand, — And felt about the knee
“What most this wondrous beast is like — Is mighty plain,” quoth he:
“‘Tis clear enough the Elephant — Is very like a TREE!”

The Fifth, who chanced to touch the ear, — Said: “E’en the blindest man
Can tell what this resembles most; — Deny the fact who can,
This marvel of an Elephant — Is very like a FAN!”

The Sixth no sooner had begun — About the beast to grope,
Than seizing on the swinging tail — That fell within his scope,
“I see,” quoth he, “the Elephant — Is very like a ROPE!”

And so these men of Indostan — Disputed loud and long,
Each in his own opinion — Exceeding stiff and strong,
Though each was partly in the right, — And all were in the wrong!

In an upcoming post on Monday, I will map the main expectations of the most important negotiating blocks in relation to the 2015 agreement. So come and visit us again.

Credit: Image Bhagath Makka