(This article has appeared as an Op-ed at The Pioneer newspaper in India on December 6, 2013)
The United Nations climate change conference went into overtime this year with sleep-deprived negotiators and Ministers discussing the most contentious issues that created a deadlock in Warsaw. Amidst concerns that Governments are out of touch with the reality of climate change and growing public demand for bold measures to tackle change, civil society groups labelled the 19th session of the Conference of Parties a “missed opportunity” and called for renewed political resolve to stop the ‘climate madness’. Around 800 members of the civil society staged a walkout from the conference venue, at National Stadium, days before the talks formally came to an end. While there were faint glimmers of progress on important issues such as forest protection, funding for adaptation measures and a Loss & Damage mechanism to deal with unavoidable climate impacts, displays of bafflingly obstinance from some rich, developed nations such as Japan, Australia and Canada hampered the talks.
Progress on top priorities of the CoP19 agenda was insufficient, as Governments have left Warsaw without a clear roadmap towards the global climate treaty due in 2015, in Paris, and without clarity on pathways, timelines and sources to mobilise the $100 billion in annual climate finance due in 2020. This is despite the fact that the CoP19 was held against the backdrop of super typhoon Haiyan which flattened out large parts of the Philippines and have threatened the lives and livelihoods of millions. Though the devastation of Haiyan is still fresh in public memory, world leaders were not motivated to raise their commitment to the cause of controlling climate change.
For instance, Japan, in the wake of the Fukushima disaster and its zero-nuclear move, revised its greenhouse gas targets from -25 per cent to +3 per cent from 1990 levels. Australia is in the process of abolishing its carbon tax. The developed countries have contributed a mere $7.5 million to the Green Climate Fund, as against their goal of mobilising $100 billion per year by 2020. The atmosphere, tainted by broken promises, was rife with discontent and distrust.
Union Minister for Environment and Forests Jayanthi Natarajan echoed the sentiments of the developing world when she expressed her dismay at this ‘scaling down of ambition’ and warned that “the world cannot afford to give up the momentum at this point”. She also pointed out that developing countries had pledged more than their developed counterparts even though it is the latter who are supposed to take the lead.
On finance, a key issue at the Warsaw talks, the picture was mixed. The adaptation fund achieved its $100 million fundraising goal, and more money will flow to countries that can stringently prove they are reducing emissions from deforestation. But, no clear deadline was set to make the first payments into the GCF and the road towards the $100 billion a year by 2020 commitment is murky. This leaves developing countries without a predictable flow of funds.
India playing closely with other BASIC countries and the Like-Minded Developing Countries were able to withstand the pressure and diplomatic games of the developed countries to try and drive a hole in the existing firewall between rich and poor nations in the context of the new climate agreement which is to be signed in 2015.
The Durban Platform was a game-changer, setting the stage for decisive climate action based on clear commitments to emissions reduction from all nations. Subsequently, the discussions in the Ad-hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform have resulted in demanding timeline for achieving its aims, including a draft text to be produced by the CoP20 in Peru in 2014 and a final agreement to be reached by CoP21 in Paris in 2015.
While it is not a foregone conclusion that the ADP will achieve its stated goals by 2015, there are now additional factors conducive to reaching a global agreement. Even if no individual extreme climate event can be attributed exclusively to increased global warming, increasing awareness of the impact of climate-driven disasters, such as typhoon Haiyan and the Uttarakhand flash floods or super-cyclone Phailin, is contributing to a global recognition of the urgency of a climate deal, among Governments as well as civil society.
Significantly, the release of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change over the next several months, culminating in the release of the final synthesis report of all its findings next year, will add to the sense of urgency.
The IPCC’s AR5 report has brought to the centrestage of discussion the notion of a global carbon budget, referring to the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, from the beginning of the industrial era till the end of the 21st century, that are permissible, if the global temperature rise is to be kept below two degrees Centrigrade. For a 66 per cent probability of keeping the rise in global average temperature below this limit, the world is allowed approximately 1000 billion tonnes of carbon emissions (taking account solely of carbon dioxide). But the crux of the matter is the equitable distribution of this space. In per capita terms, the developed countries have already substantially exceeded their fair share of this global budget. As a consequence, a large number of developing countries, including China and especially India, will have to make do with less than their fair share of the global carbon space as their national carbon budgets for the future, if indeed global warming has to be kept in check.