The English Premier League is down to its final weeks, and its still a three horse race. Manchester City has had some shocking recent defeats, but is still in with shot. Chelsea’s overpaid accountants are busy counting goals and Liverpool fans are biting their nails, wondering if their faith will be re-payed with their first Premier League victory this side of the millennium.
And this weekend’s showdown between Mourinho’s men in blue and Gerrard’s gents in red looks likely to decide the fate of the title race.
But they’re not the only ones in an open race for a title.
The UNFCCC is racing towards its 2015 deadline for a treaty, and it’s anyone’s guess which way things will turn out.
This week, the UN’s key facilitators released their 20 page ‘options’ report with the aim of helping the negotiating process shuffle its way into agreement.
But much like the Premier League’s 3 way dance, it’s anyone’s guess which way countries might go.
According to the Co-Chair’s what they have in the 20-page document is a “limited” amount of options. Well, 20 pages has never seemed to me to be “limited” - but in the world of UN submissions, clarifications and sub-clarifications; 20 pages isn’t the biggest paperwork-pile negotiators will see on their desk this year.
Though it is easily as complicated as the Premier League table could be if Liverpool loose tomorrow evening. Then things get really shaky.
On the UN stage, they’re not debating over who’s going to take home any championship, but every country is certainly behaving as if there are things to be won and lost.
One of the biggest battles going on at the moment is over historical emissions and who might have to pay the price. Developing countries of course are keen to see the biggest burden for emissions reductions on the big historical emitters. They’re also keen to see them take the lead on decreasing emissions and for the Developed countries to lend a hand to help them do some much needed capacity building.
The Developed countries are weary of making any big sacrifices if rapidly developing nations like Brazil, Turkey, China, India, South Africa and Nigeria don’t have to. They think everyone needs to start this whole emissions reduction gamble together, and they think everyone should commit to what they see as an ‘even playing field’. Even though it’s slanted in their direction. This is no news in the UNFCCC world, and in this new text, it still remains a key issue of contention.
The legal form and force of any future deal is also as uncertain as Chelsea’s chances of winning tomorrow night. This difference between legal form and legal force is a fun old word game we have been playing in the UNFCCC for a few years now, and it looks like we’ll be playing it for a little while longer.
At the moment, some countries want legally binding commitments for emissions reductions. Others want voluntary submissions of emissions reduction targets. Others still want it to be legal for Developed countries and voluntary for Developing countries – no prizes for guessing who. And there are some who think it should be voluntary for everybody and we can all hold hands and sing Kum-bai-ya round the smoke stacks while waters rise up behind us.
Strange as it seems, negotiators are also at odds as to what they should really be aiming for. Should we try for a 2 degree world, or a 1.5 degree world. This may sound like nonsense to anyone outside the UNFCCC – surely it’s better to aim for 1.5 than 2 right? That’s like a fireman looking at a burning building and saying, “should we aim to get everyone out, or just some of them out”.
This has been an ongoing battle that came to the fore in 2009, when the 2 degrees number popped up in the negotiations while every climate scientist on the planet said “WHAT”.
Ever since the small island states have been fighting the good fight to get the target back down to 1.5 degress. Lets hope we can get a decision on this before we fly past it and end up with 2 degrees as our only option.
Finally, there is some room at the end of the paper on getting other bodies involved, like business and local government. Since businesses are the ones polluting most of the time, and they have lots of money this seems like a pretty good idea. Unfortunately, the UNFCCC has no idea how to make this happen, but it’s a good idea to put down on paper.
In any case, this negotiating text has everything negotiators will need to know before heading into Bonn in June. And it will be anyone’s guess how things will go.
As for this weekend’s game between Liverpool and Chelsea, I’ve got too many friends and family wearing red tomorrow, so my heart’s with Liverpool. Given the season they’ve been having, I think my head’s with them as well.
When it comes to the UNFCCC, my heart hopes that we can aim for a legally binding agreement with justly differentiated commitments that the science community believes can keep us under 1.5 degrees.
Given the history the UNFCCC has had, and the year they’ve had so far – my head tells me we’re in for a 3 way tussle, and it could go anyway..,
But if you’re looking for some more hints before placing your bets, check out Ed King’s analysis right here.
As for me, I’m off to watch some football.