Crouching Indian Tiger, hidden Chinese Dragon

Posted on 17. Dec, 2009 by Leela Raina in India

Looking back at the last week dynamics it is interesting to see to such political activity and internal politics. Since climate change brings on the table issues such as trade, globalization,health,education,ethics, culture and even gender all playing with the backdrop of the rich history of development and growth of the world. It makes it all the more complicated to negotiate such a deal.

The negotiations center around bringing the United States on the board to sign on to a legally binding treaty since it seems impossible for US politically to sign on to the kyoto protocol. US being at a great bargaining position globally has the power to lead. It has the power to lead other big countries who have enough potential for leadership themselves but need to be catalysed by the US. Eurupean Union, Japan, Australia will only speak out , once US has.

So what will make US move?

From negotiating positions we could see that it would like emerging economies to take stronger commitments. But, was this for India, China, Suth Africa , Brazil etc? Or was it just for one of these countries which has the best bargaining position to make the negotiations move forward?

China, with its image of the emerging leader in the world with respect to technology, economic growth, infrastructure,knowledge and capacity , is at a higher bargaining position than the European Union with respect to making or breaking the deal here at Copenhagen.

So where does India fit into all this?

I can just say, China played a very smart game of hiding behind India, if India goes against China and starts putting pressure on them , they loose most of the stronghold in the G77 and give a chance to the developed nations to take advantage of this division. Although if India continues to stick with China and the developing country argument , they will be pressurized to sign on to a deal with commitments for the developing countries or there would be no agreement in Copenhagen. China on one hand can do more, but unfortunately India will not be able to extend more than whats on the table due to a specific mandate being given by the government which clearly draws the red lines.

India and China are having highly coordinated meetings and its interesting to see that have they discussed on the points if collaborations and points if conflicts among themselves? Or is it that they are just having “Chai” together making it extremely convenient for themselves to run away from responsibilities.

It’ll be interesting to see :

Who succumbs under pressure first?

Seeing the bargaining positions of both countries, it doesn’t look like any is going to succumb under pressure ?!They are pretty much going to hang on to their cards and fight this one out. Although getting some insight from the Indian Negotiators it really looks like the Chair and President of the CMP - meeting of parties will come up with its draft text which India will be forced to sign on to. And frankly, I do not see enough resistance.

Who has a hidden agenda in this , India , china or/and US, and who will succeed?

This question is probably worth at least 10 Billion US dollars right now? In my opinion, China will clearly get away with doing less, so will US( obviously) and India too leaving this deal with a sense of a GREENWASH.

What will India do if China moves?

This one I leave open to all of you , and the one who answers it correctly might win a free pass into Bella Centre( na, just kidding)