Hopes for Tianjin
Posted on 03. Oct, 2010 by astark in U.S.A.
Bad news first: there isn’t going to be a binding international agreement to reduce carbon emissions in Cancun this December. Nearly every head-of-state, UN climate negotiator and even the Secretary General of the UNFCCC (or the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) is in agreement that the issues there are too complicated to be resolved now, especially after the Copenhagen conference’s disappointing finish.
But that doesn’t mean that you should stop caring about what happens in Cancun, or even at the lead-up planning session that opens tomorrow in Tianjin. Actually, we are probably experiencing a pivotal turning point right now in the history of the climate movement and the UNFCCC process, a fact that you would never recognize if you’re a casual reader of the US media (and you’re not to blame!). The Copenhagen conference last December ushered in an era of increasing mistrust between developed and developing countries over climate issues, that must be rebuilt if any dramatic progress is to be made. And interestingly enough, it is still possible that the conferences in Tianjin and Cancun will make substantial progress after all, just not in the way that you would expect. That’s because the focus now is on more concrete steps that the international community can take to mitigate climate change (by lowering greenhouse gas emissions) and to help vulnerable countries adapt to its effects, such as the massive floods that were seen around the world this summer.
The conferences will revolve around a small set of these kinds of concrete issues- the means that will be used to distribute the climate finance agreed to in Copenhagen by developed countries to help developing countries with adaptation and mitigation efforts, REDD (or Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), technology transfer and the legal framework for a new binding international agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is now expected to be finalized in 2011.
There are significant points of contention on these issues as well, which I hope to talk about in more detail throughout the week. But there are also significant points of agreement, and I would argue that countries are much closer on reaching an agreement on these specific issues than they are on emissions reductions. For one thing, most developed countries already agreed to mobilize a certain amount of money for climate finance under the Copenhagen Accord. For another, almost everyone recognizes the need to make demonstrable progress to keep the UNFCCC process alive. While the UNFCCC process may not be perfect, it’s also the only forum that includes every country in the world that is equipped to tackle these issues.
So my hope for the Tianjin conference this week, from October 4-9, is that country negotiators are able to put aside enough of their smaller differences to come to agreement on may of these issues. The well-being of our planet and its people is at stake.
Sofa I guess? Let’s keeping to hope for the best!