Voluntary targets might be popular among some countries, but they are simply not going to work if we want to inspire countries to take the type of short term keep global warming below 2 degrees.
This has been a key goal of the European Union, Island nations, Least Developed Countries (LDC) and progressive South American States (AILAC) since 2011. However, increasing short-term commitments is incredibly hard for sitting governments to do. In response, an action plan has been created within the UNFCCC negotiations to ensure that the long-term goals that will be taken to Paris next year are supported by a big increase in short term actions from some of the biggest polluters.
The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2014 found that there is a need for additional reductions by at least 10 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020. The report also found that there is much untapped potential to reduce emissions at a relatively low cost. Given rising emissions, it is urgent that ways are explored as to how this potential can be tapped.
When the now famous Durban platform was first created, it was decided that all countries should work on enhancing mitigation ambition to close the ambition gap.
One year later, and the work continued, and countries searched desperately for new, technical and innovative ways of further increasing mitigation efforts around the world. Even now, this process is still going on and new technical opportunities are constantly being revised and updated.
What future for the work plan on enhancing mitigation ambition?
The first question that will arise in Lima is whether or not to keep working on this issue. This will come under the spotlight during the Technical Experts Meetings (TEM) in 2015. Lets hope that consensus can be reached, as many countries have shown a strong interest for the TEM.
The other question which may come up is something called the Durban platform mandate, which is due to end after the COP21. We know the Paris agreement will enter into force by 2020, but what will happen in the meantime to enhancing mitigation ambition for the 2015-2020 period?
Perhaps it will continue after Paris, but this is largely unknown and technically complicated.
With the prospect of the COP21 and a jam-packed calendar of negotiations in 2015, it is critical that we make progress on this in Lima. It is the perfect opportunity to to take advantage of the scheduled end of the Durban platform and rebuild the pre-2020 architecture. Lets knock down the current plans and build something that we’re all proud of. Something that inspires real action.
If we did, it would be critical to improve the capacity to support and influence the actions taken by different countries. We have never been very good at this, but if we don’t get it right soon, 2020 will hit us and we’ll all see it as a failure.
Right now, we have a chance to change course, and re-ignite the global fight against climate change for the next 5 years.
The good news is we already have some of the foundations to build on. To allow advances in Lima, there has already been a draft text on pre-2020 ambition last July, updated in October, and collected into a final ADP draft for Lima. There is also an ironically named non-paper on elements for the Paris agreement which will be ‘on the table’ Lima. Obviously not on paper though.
In this so-called non-paper, there are already some of the signs we need to see to really increase short-term mitigation goals. This include:
The financial institutions (Green Climate Fund, Global Environmental Facility) and the technology mechanism (Technology Executive Committee, Climate Technology Centre & Network). They are both “invited” to support countries in the implementation of their pre-2020 actions and to participate in technical dialogues. This is a great sign.
The work plan on enhancing mitigation ambition will continue its work after 2015 till the entry into force of the new climate agreement. It will also critically have to go through two separate review processes in 2017 and 2019.
There will also be a scientific basis to the work. The Subsidiary Bodies (SBI in particular) are where all the technical discussions happen, and they have been given the task of accounting for the progress of these ambitions and making sure they are on track with making sure we stay below 2 degrees warming.
There are also special forums to speed it all up. A Forum on “Accelerated Implementation of pre-2020 Climate Action” will be convened next June with a view to consolidate and more importantly, enhance immediate action.
It is not going to be easy. But if we are going to get anywhere, we need to make sure we keep working on it well after 2015. This way the COP in Paris could hand over power to the Subsidiary Bodies (the technically minded experts of the UNFCCC) in order to knock down the current mitigation architecture that is getting us nowhere, and create a new, innovative platform to enhance pre-2020 ambition.
We only have one year to get this right. But it needs to start in Lima.
This is a guest post by Clement Butheel from CliMates