What we know. What we think we know. What we hope to find out.

Posted on 17. Apr, 2010 by Joshua Wiese in Adopt a Negotiator

The first round of substantive UNFCCC negotiations begin May 31st and go through June 11th in Bonn, but there is a lot happening between now and then. In anticipation of next week’s big events in Washington DC and Cochabamba, we’re taking stock of what we know after Bonn, what we think we know, and what we’re hoping to find out over the next few weeks.

Please let us know if you agree or if there’s anything you would highlight on the road from Bonn to… well… back to Bonn.

GIGATONS SHY OF THE ACTION WE NEED

What we know: In the the negotiating track focused on further commitments to the Kyoto Protocol (AWG KP), the chair has a mandate to do the math, compiling pledges for emission reductions and other relevant information both inside Kyoto Protocal in the track that includes parties who didn’t sign or make commitments in the Kyoto protocol (AWG LCA).

What we think we know: There are major gaps between what countries have actually agreed and what our best science tells us we need to do in order to avert catastrophic climate change. In fact, that gap accounts for gigatons of excess greenhouse gas pollution. Our only shot at seriously confronting climate change is to close these gaps.

With this mandate, the KP chair can begin formally examining these gaps in the context of each country’s respective commitments; hopefully giving all of us advocates for climate action more leverage to push our countries to deliver.

What we hope to find out: We don’t know how much will show up in the Chair’s report on emissions reductions and whether it will address all of the serious concerns about the gigatons gap between what’s required and what’s on the table for pledged action thus far.

THE NEGOTIATIONS WILL CONTINUE

What we know: Chairs of both the LCA and KP negotiations received mandates from countries to prepare documentation (like negotiating texts) - based on the outcomes of the conference in Copenhagen last December - to help them make progress when they reconvene in June. This will help negotiations continue along both tracks.

Here’s what we think we know: This means that both tracks of the negotiations will be able to move onto substance in June. It means that all of the work done in December, including the Copenhagen Accord, will inform the

What we hope to find out: There’s still a lot of blowback from countries who were excluded from the negotiating rooms where the Copenhagen Accord was hashed out. Many developing countries are also concerned that the non-binding Accord, if allowed to play a substantive role in any future negotiations, will mark the top-limit of country commitments instead of just a step along the way to a solution that’s fair, binding, and bold enough to matches what science demands.

We hope to find out what role the Accord will play in future negotiations and whether all countries that are parties to this process will be able to participate in a way that’s genuinely inclusive and transparent going forward.

THE UNFCCC’S ROLE GOING FORWARD

What we know: There will be 4 additional meetings for KP track and the more inclusive LCA track between now and the end of the year.

What we think we know: These meetings are a clear indication that there is appetite to make concrete progress as we head through 2010 into the next major climate conference in Cancun this December.

What we hope to find out: It’s growing increasingly clear that processes outside of the UNFCCC will be key to success inside the UNFCCC. Yvo de Boer recently called for countries to “put together and implement an architecture on mitigation, adaptation, capacity building and financing to give developing countries the confidence” by December’s Cancun Conference - much of which might happen outside of UNFCCC negotiations. With the increasing importance of parallel processes, we hope to get a better sense for the landscape shaping whether and when we’ll unlock a fair, ambitious and binding deal to address climate change.

Here are a few potentially important processes taking place alongside the UNFCCC -

Next week’s Major Economies Forum in Washington D.C. (April 18-19) - which includes Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States - will focus on advancing the exploration of concrete initiatives and joint ventures to increase the supply of clean energy while cutting greenhouse gases. More info is (or at least we hope will be) available at http://www.state.gov/g/oes/climate/mem.

Next week’s World People’s Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth in Cochabamba Bolivia (April 19 - 22) is being framed as an opportunity to “analyze the structural and systemic causes that drive climate change and propose measures to ensure the well-being of all humanity in harmony with nature; discuss and agree on a Universal Declaration on the Rights of the Mother Earth; agree on proposals for new commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and for a COP decision under the UNFCCC to address developed countries’ climate debt, climate change migrants-refugees, emission reductions, adaptation, technology transfer, finance, forests, a shared vision, and indigenous peoples; work on the organization of the World People’s Referendum on Climate Change; analyze and develop an action plan to advance the establishment of a Climate Justice Tribunal; and define strategies for action and mobilization to defend life from Climate Change and to defend the Rights of Mother Earth.” according to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin. For more information visit http://pwccc.wordpress.com/

None of us we’re thrilled with the US role in last years talks. Relative to what we know they can (and must) do, we saw relatively little leadership in the absence of domestic legislation. April 26th, however, there may be some action on that front. We’ll track the domestic efforts required to deliver international commitments to combat climate change coming out of the US and many other key players.

REDD+ is seeing cooperative action in the form of an interim partnership aimed at rapid implementation of a global coordinated effort to preserve tropical forests at the Oslo Climate and Forest Conference (May 27th). This interim partnership will work in line with UNFCCC decisions. You can find out more at http://www.oslocfc2010.no

Tags: Bonn, Cochabamba, MEF, postCOP, postcop15, UNFCCC